Austin, get ready for a repeat of last summer’s hot weather

Bob Rose, chief meteorologist for the Lower Colorado River Authority, addresses local meteorologists and media at a briefing April 26.

Bob Rose, chief meteorologist for the Lower Colorado River Authority, addresses local meteorologists and media at a briefing April 26.

Although Central Texas had a wet start to 2017, this summer’s temperatures should be near a repeat of last year’s summer season, according to Bob Rose, chief meteorologist for the Lower Colorado River Authority today.

Hot summer ahead

Temperatures in the area should be about 1-2 degrees above normal, from late spring through August and possibly into September, he said.

“I do think we are looking at another summer somewhat like we had last summer,” Rose said. “Overall not a record breaker, as far as heat goes or as far as rain goes, but I’m sure we’re going to see some surprises along the way as well.”

He said the area should see “a moderately hot summer ahead” with an estimated 15-20 days in the triple-digit temperature range. Central Texas posted 24 days measuring 100 degrees temperature or greater last year, he said.

“We’re going to get into some 100 [degree days]," Rose said. “That’s weather here in Central Texas.”

An end to the drought statewide?

Central Texas has had above normal rainfall from December to April and is anticipated to have about normal rainfall totals from May through August, trending wetter into the fall, Rose said.

Most areas in the Central Texas region posted 10-15 inches of rain so far this year, with the southern half of Travis County into Bastrop County tallying about two inches of rainfall above normal and near normal rainfall totals in the Hill Country, he said. However, the area along the Gulf Coast between Victoria and Houston snagged the most rainfall totals above normal for this time of year, he said.

Despite Central Texas encountering a dry period for the past 10 days, Rose said the area—and even the state—is “still in pretty good shape.”

“We’re not talking about any drought anywhere around Central Texas at this time or around much of Texas at this time,” he said. “Hopefully, if we get even more rain, we may get to the point that Texas may be drought-free again come next week. It’s pretty rare for a state the size of Texas and the odd shape that it is to get everybody to be drought-free. It’s  kind of a unique occurrence.”

Rose said he believes an El Nino weather pattern will develop late-summer and into the fall but not as strong as the pattern experienced in 2015-16.

“We’re not to El Nino yet, but we are definitely seeing signs that the Pacific [Ocean] is trending toward an El Nino,” he said. “Most of the forecasters I’ve been following or seeing their data are cautiously optimistic that we will go toward at least a weak El Nino by this fall, if not a moderate El Nino, peaking sometime in the late fall or the early winter.”

Given the variability in this year’s weather forecast models, Rose said the El Nino prospect is not a certainty and estimates about a 70 percent chance of the area’s weather pattern following an El Nino trend.

“And, if we don’t make the El Nino, we’ll probably stay in neutral,” he said. “There’s very, very little chance we would trend back toward La Nina at this time.”

Since 1950, Rose said there has been only one other time in history—from 1963 to 1966— during which the region moved from an El Nino pattern to a La Nina pattern and then back to an El Nino pattern, in back to back years.
SHARE THIS STORY


MOST RECENT

Fitzhugh Brewing has been under construction since 2019 and is planning for a summer opening in the Dripping Springs area. (Courtesy Fitzhugh Brewing)
Fitzhugh Brewing planning to open in Dripping Springs this summer

Fitzhugh Brewing will also include a restaurant by PEJ Kitchens, which is affiliated with Poke-E-Jo’s Smokehouse.

Dr. Liam Fry speaks about two nursing home isolation facilities that will be coming to the Austin and Travis County areas on March 30 at the city of Austin's Combined Transportation, Emergency, and Communications Center. (Courtesy ATXN)
Facilities to isolate nursing home residents who test positive for coronavirus will be set up in Travis, Williamson counties

The facilities will be for individuals living at nursing homes who do not need hospitalization or have already been discharged from the hospital.

Austin Regional Clinic Cedar Park
Austin Regional Clinic launches 5 drive-up coronavirus testing locations

Austin Regional Clinic will open drive-up COVID-19 testing sites across five sites.

NBISD workers deliver meals to students at the Veramendi Elementary School meal pickup location March 17. (Courtesy New Braunfels ISD)
Elections, closures, instruction: See what Austin-area schools are doing in wake of coronavirus

During the coronavirus situation, schools have had to make changes in how they deliver instruction, meals, elections and more. Below is a roundup of what local schools are doing to serve students and families.

Balcones Neighborhood Park
Austin closes city basketball courts, tennis courts, skate parks to public

Beginning March 28, all city-owned tennis courts, basketball courts, skate parts and pavilions are closed to the public.

Capital Metro station
All Capital Metro fares will be free throughout April

Beginning April 1, riders will not have to pay Capital Metro operators or use the farebox.

Turnstile Coffee Beer and Spirits
Will they or won’t they? Austin restaurants split on when to open during coronavirus pandemic

While some restaurants have bunkered down to open at later dates, some Austin restaurants are moving forward with service.

Despite heavy restrictions on public gatherings in place, sizable crowds gathered March 24 on the free side of Barton Springs pool, just hours before Austin's stay-at-home order went into effect. (Christopher Neely/Community Impact Newspaper)
Residents have reported 180 violations since Austin area's stay-at-home order went into effect

No penalties have been issued since the order went into effect March 25.

Austin Public Health officials confirmed the first death from the coronavirus in Travis County on March 27. (Courtesy Adobe Stock)
First Travis County resident dies from coronavirus

According to public health officials, the woman was in her 70s and had underlying health conditions.

Here is the latest news on stay-at-home orders across the Austin area

Find out if your locale is sheltering in place or what legal consequences the coronavirus is creating in the stories below.

While the agency is still tallying the number of unemployment insurance claims filed thus far in March, in the week prior to March 25, at least 150,000 claims had been filed. (Courtesy Adobe Stock)
Official: Increase in calls for statewide unemployment benefits is ‘almost vertical’

According to Serna, on an average day the Texas Workforce Commission’s four call centers statewide receive 13,000-14,000 calls; on March 22, the agency received 100,000 calls regarding unemployment insurance benefit inquiries.

Back to top