Memorial Day rainfalls[/caption]Lower Colorado River Authority data shows Lake Travis has not been this full since late 2010 when the Central Texas drought first started. However, LCRA officials are unwilling to declare an end to the drought because adjoining Lake Buchanan is still less than half full, causing the Highland Lakes to be only 69 percent full combined as of June 19.
“We’re not calling it anything other than a blessing in terms of the rain we received,” said John Hofmann, LCRA’s director of water operations. “A wet month is not a drought break.”
Lake Travis is up 46.6 feet mean sea level since the end of 2014, but Lake Buchanan has increased a little more than 10 feet msl in that time. The difference in lake levels is not uncommon, Hofmann said, and comes as a result of rainfall not falling far enough north to reach the Lake Buchanan watershed—the area where water typically flows into the lake.
But because most major LCRA water users, such as the cities of Austin, Cedar Park and Leander, pull their drinking supply directly from Lake Travis, the recent rains still proved beneficial, Hofmann said. Neither LCRA nor any of its municipal customers have announced plans to decrease drought restrictions, which have been in place much of the past four years as lake levels dwindled.
“There are some who say the water restrictions ought to be how we live from now on,” Hofmann said. “And there are others who say we now have water in the lake and the drought is over, so leave us alone and let us water as much as we want.”
That conversation could change, Hofmann said, should an El Nino weather pattern remain in place. However, Austin-based hydrologist Raymond Slade stressed that El Nino is only one of 10 indicators that predicts weather.
He predicts soil moisture from recent rains will not last long once summer starts. That could lead Austin-area residents to water their lawns and thus undo years of water conservation efforts.
“There’s a theory about droughts that I call the ‘hydro-illogical cycle,” Slade said. “As a drought gets worse, there becomes concern. Then as the drought worsens with time it becomes panic. Then rainfall sets in, and the mood becomes apathy—and the whole cycle starts over.”
LCRA Chief Meteorologist Bob Rose said in late May he still believes El Nino is likely to cause cooler temperatures and above-average rainfall. Long-term weather models show Central Texas will remain in an El Nino weather pattern through the end of the year, he said.
By that time a long-term Highland Lakes water management plan could be approved by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, the state agency that oversees LCRA’s handling of the Highland Lakes.
Under the stipulations of that plan, water is likely to be released next year downstream to Gulf Coast-area rice farmers who once relied on the Highland Lakes. Emergency drought orders approved each year by TCEQ since 2012 have prevented water from flowing downstream for agricultural use.
Additional reporting by Leslee Bassman
