Austin's first election utilizing regional City Council representation proved as dramatic as at least one expert anticipated.
Sherri Greenberg, director of The University of Texas Center for Politics and Governance and a professor at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, said she was not surprised by the outcomes of the Nov. 4 election during which only two of 10 council districts were decided, and another outcome was finalized after a candidate withdrew from the runoff.
"This has been an issue that has been cussed and discussed in Austin for years," Greenberg said. "We really were the largest city in the United States before that was still going with a 100 percent at-large system."
Because of the conversion to regional council districts, there was a lot of pent-up demand for new candidates yet very little name recognition—making it difficult for anyone to stand out enough to gain the 50 percent of votes needed to win without a runoff election, she said.
Neither leading mayoral candidate—attorney Steve Adler or Councilman Mike Martinez—gained a majority, meaning the citywide race will be decided along with the other seven runoff elections Dec. 16 to finalize the new Austin City Council.
"I had predicted three to four districts where there was potential to win without a runoff, and two of them did," Greenberg said. "[Winning outright is] very difficult to do, and I think it was a foregone conclusion there would be a runoff in the mayoral race."
Delia Garza and Ann Kitchen clinched seats on council as the District 2 and District 5 representatives, respectively. Councilwoman Kathie Tovo won District 9 despite coming within one percentage point of being declared the winner outright after her opponent, Councilman Chris Riley, withdrew from the runoff a couple days after gaining just more than 40 percent of the vote. Greenberg commended Riley's decision, calling it a smart move.
"I think there's a chance [Tovo] would have gained even more support because if you look at the [precincts] where Riley did the best, they were by the university, and the students are going to be gone by [the Dec. 16 runoff election]," Greenberg said.
District 1 candidate Ora Houston also came within one percentage point of avoiding a runoff.
The top two candidates from each race will face off in a final election that is expected to draw far less voter turnout, Greenberg said.
"Who is actually going to turn out? A runoff is about who can club the most people over the head and drag them to the polls," Greenberg said.
The most interesting race to watch may be the mayoral race, she said. Adler and Martinez nearly split Austin in half, according to precinct-by-precinct results that reveal Adler won mostly in West Austin, and Martinez—and to a lesser extent, third-place challenger Mayor Pro Tem Sheryl Cole—found success in East Austin.
"It will be interesting to see where [Cole's] support goes," Greenberg said.
Early voting starts Dec. 1 and ends Dec. 12 before the Dec. 16 runoff.