Plano ISD enrollment expected to continue dropping in next decade

The district has lost roughly 1,900 students in the last four years, according to a presentation at a  Feb. 18 work session, and the trend is expected to continue. (Gavin Pugh/Community Impact Newspaper)
The district has lost roughly 1,900 students in the last four years, according to a presentation at a Feb. 18 work session, and the trend is expected to continue. (Gavin Pugh/Community Impact Newspaper)

The district has lost roughly 1,900 students in the last four years, according to a presentation at a Feb. 18 work session, and the trend is expected to continue. (Gavin Pugh/Community Impact Newspaper)

Enrollment at Plano ISD is expected to continue to decline in the next decade, according to a report from a Feb. 18 work session.

The district has lost roughly 1,900 students in the last four years, according to Rocky Gardiner, school district consulting director with Templeton Demographics, and that trend is projected to continue.

“This is a trend that we’ve been seeing, really based on ... You’re just top-heavy,” Gardiner said. “There’s just a very large twelfth-grade class and smaller kindergarten classes coming in.”

Since 2010, average prices of new homes in Plano have increased by 55% to $478,015, while existing homes have increased by 54% to $385,185, according to the presentation. Plano has sold a combined 6,000 homes between existing housing and new housing for seven consecutive years, he said.

About three students are accounted for in every 10 homes built since 2016, he said. This is a decrease from the six students for every 10 homes in 2010, according to Templeton Demographics.


Less than one student per 100 apartments built since 2015 was found in Gardiner’s study.

“Obviously, there’s a demand for housing, but the challenge for housing right now is affordability,” Gardiner said. “We’re going to see how that plays out in the next 12-18 months.”

A decline in housing could also be linked to a number of renovation projects in the city and that Plano is approaching build-out, or that less than 5% of the land for housing is undeveloped, he said.

As enrollment at the elementary level continues to decline, numbers are expected to stabilize in six or seven years. This is a good thing from a building capacity standpoint, Gardiner said.

Plano ISD watches for campuses that reach 85% of its building’s full capacity, known as program capacity. Capacity of 85% is called "functional capacity" and serves as a warning for the district to watch trends at specific campuses, according to Randy McDowell, the district’s chief financial officer.

“From a finance person, you don’t necessarily want that much capacity at all the elementaries,” McDowell said. “Your most efficient point would be is if everything ... [is] over functional [capacity], but you’re not at program [capacity]. That would be optimal efficiency.”

Enrollment for the 2019-20 school year was 52,646 students, according to Gardiner’s presentation. Estimated projected enrollment for the 2029-30 school year is 49,071.


MOST RECENT

The Plano Animal Shelter is operating normally and welcoming all walk-in visitors during regular hours. (Courtesy Plano Animal Services)
Animal intake up 30% at Plano shelter

Animal Services Director Jamey Cantrell said during spring and summer the shelter averages an intake of around 600 animals per month.

The home furnishings chain offers furniture, bedding, kitchenware, lighting fixtures, window coverings, bath linens, wall decor and more. (William C. Wadsack/Community Impact Newspaper)
Pottery Barn now open in Plano

The home furnishings chain offers furniture, bedding, kitchenware, lighting fixtures, window coverings, bath linens, wall decor and more.

The city of McKinney established school zones for Emerson High School in a July 20 City Council meeting. (Courtesy Adobe Stock)
School zone established for Emerson High in Frisco ISD; 61% of residents in 3 Plano ZIP codes fully vaccinated, and more top news from DFW

Read the most popular business and community news from the past week from the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

Peter Lake (left), chair of the Public Utility Commission of Texas, and Brad Jones, interim president and CEO of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, provided an update on state regulators' electric grid redesign efforts in Austin on July 22. (Ben Thompson/Community Impact Newspaper)
Regulators: Texas electric grid prepared for potentially record-breaking demand next week; 'once-in-a-generation reforms' underway

The heads of the agencies in charge of the Texas electric grid met in Austin on July 22 to provide updates on their grid reform efforts.

Here is the latest data regarding COVID-19 in Plano. (Community Impact Newspaper staff)
Tracking COVID-19: 3 Plano ZIP codes have more than 61% of residents fully vaccinated as of July 19

The 75024 ZIP code has the highest percentage of fully vaccinated residents with nearly 64%, while the 75074 ZIP code has the lowest percentage with nearly 47%.

Person on a roof.
Ask An Expert: Co-owner of Sarris & MacKir Roofing and Construction in Plano offers tips for home projects

Sarris & MacKir Roofing and Construction's services include free roof inspections, gutter replacement, window repair and replacement, interior and exterior painting, fence staining and complete roofing services.

Opioid abuse and the need for services addressing developmental disabilities are both on the rise in Collin County, LifePath Systems CEO Tammy Mahan told county commissioners on July 19. (Courtesy Adobe Stock)
Collin County’s LifePath Systems sees rise in spending for opioid abuse, psychiatric beds

On treatment for opioid abuse, spending rose to $912,662 in 2020, which is up from $808,524 in 2019.

Suburban Yacht Club plans to open in Plano in August. (Courtesy Shannon McCarthy)
Suburban Yacht Club coming to Plano; Gidi Bar & Grill opens in Frisco and more DFW-area news

Read the latest business and community news from the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

Food.
Farm2Cook now open at new Plano location

The new location is next door to India Bazaar. Farm2Cook offers organic meat processed in compliance with Islamic religious requirements to be considered halal.

Sauna.
SweatHouz Infrared Sauna Studio planning September opening in Plano

SweatHouz offers private infrared saunas to guests for one hour at a time, along with a vitamin C-infused shower.

Spa treatment.
Issil Beauty Spa now serving clients in Plano

The spa features anti-aging and skin treatments such as fibroblasting, microneedling, dermaplaning and microdermabrasion.

Food.
Suburban Yacht Club planning for August opening in Plano

The restaurant's menu will offer Southern California food truck-inspired dishes such as quesabirria, crisped pork carnitas and Flamin’ Hot Cheetos elote.