Water utility, LCRA plan for worst while rains delay drought of record

The worst Central Texas drought on record is no longer likely to occur this summer after several rain showers in late May and June.

Nonetheless, planning for such a scenario continues for Austin Water Utility, the city-owned water utility, and the Lower Colorado River Authority, the agency tasked with managing the area's water supply. LCRA officials now predict the Highland Lakes will not hit their lowest levels in history until at least fall, meaning combined storage in lakes Travis and Buchanan will likely remain higher than 600,000 acre-feet, the point that triggers the drought of record. By fall, El Nino weather patterns could bring drought relief similar to what the region experienced in 2009, LCRA Meteorologist Bob Rose said.

"We're not at El Nino yet, but we're getting really close," Rose said, explaining how water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean have slightly increased, typically resulting in a stronger storm season. "I'm very encouraged the weather pattern is going to change in September and October."

In the meantime Rose said he predicts the Austin area will struggle through another dry summer, with temperatures 1–2 degrees above normal and at least 40 days of 100-degree weather anticipated.

"That's not a great forecast, especially with such a serious drought like this," he said.

As of June 18, the Highland Lakes' combined storage stood at 802,633 acre-feet.

Backup plan

Should the lakes reach the drought of record, all LCRA firm water customers—including the city of Austin—are required to drop their water usage 20 percent compared with a 2010–11 standard. Fortunately for Austin, the city's conservation measures have helped Austin to already meet that requirement, according to Austin Water Utility records, keeping the city in compliance with its water contract with LCRA.

However, dropping below 600,000 acre-feet in combined lake storage automatically triggers stricter Stage 3 drought restrictions. In addition, should Austin City Council approve a task force recommendation, a drought fee will be added to customer water bills until conditions improve to help Austin Water Utility recoup lost revenue because of less water usage. A similar drought fee has already been implemented by a water utility in the Bee Cave area.

"The cost savings don't offset our fixed costs," said Jason Hill, Austin Water Utility spokesman, explaining 80 percent of the utility's expenses are debt and operations expenses that need paid regardless of profit.

The task force also recommended an overall rate increase regardless of drought conditions. The increase was in the works regardless of weather, Hill said. No date has been set for council to vote on the recommendations, he said.

A separate task force has identified alternative water sources for Austin. Proposals include pumping water from Lady Bird Lake to one of the city's existing water treatment plants, applying biodegradable powder on Lady Bird Lake to help combat evaporation, better managing Longhorn Dam in East Austin and lowering lake levels in Lake Austin during non-peak seasons to capture more rainwater—a proposal first made by LCRA before resident outcry ended such speculation. The task force also explored using groundwater from the Carrizo-Wilcox and northern Edwards aquifers and the possibility of storing water in an aquifer for later use.

The big picture

Much debate remains on the best method for managing the Highland Lakes. The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality in mid-May rejected a proposed water management plan submitted by LCRA. TCEQ instead drafted its own proposed management plan, which added data from 2011–13 to take into account heightened drought conditions since LCRA first began its management planning process.

"TCEQ is proposing a very comprehensive drought-management regime [that] includes more stringent curtailment curves with a higher limit on when interruptible water releases would be completely curtailed, depending on the severity of drought conditions," TCEQ Executive Director Richard A. Hyde wrote in a letter to LCRA.

If the state-proposed plan gains approval, downstream rice farmers would be cut off sooner rather than forcing LCRA to request emergency drought relief—as it has each of the past three years. The plan also sets higher trigger points for reinstating water to agricultural users in the lower Colorado River basin.

State Sens. Kirk Watson, D-Austin, and Troy Fraser, R-Horseshoe Bay, applauded TCEQ's decision to strengthen the standards for releasing water downstream. LCRA in 2011—the last year water was released downstream—sent more than 464,000 acre-feet of water to agricultural users compared with 142,000 acre-feet used by the city of Austin that same year.

"The [TCEQ] executive director sent a strong signal by agreeing that LCRA's proposal for water management during drought falls woefully short of what is needed to protect firm water customers" such as the city of Austin, Watson and Fraser said in a joint statement.

TCEQ and LCRA officials will continue meeting through the summer to discuss details of the state-proposed plan before taking any proposal to the public for comment sometime this fall.