Over the past five years, 3,016 more students enrolled in Alvin ISD, representing an 11.6% increase since 2019. While enrollment continues to grow, the rate of increase has slowed.
Under the 10-year projection, AISD’s enrollment is expected to increase by nearly 6,800 students by 2035-36, representing a 22.5% increase.
At the board of trustees’ April 14 meeting, Population and Survey Analysts, or PASA, presented a comprehensive review of Alvin ISD student enrollment trends, based on a three-to-four-month research into demographic patterns, housing development and student population factors affecting district growth, PASA President Stacey Tepera said at the meeting.
The details
School districts generally follow a natural demographic lifecycle based on housing development and population change.
“Before [the pandemic], the district was gaining around 1,000 students per year. Starting in 2023, we’ve seen a deceleration of that growth each year,” Tepera said. “This is not just in Alvin ISD, but this has happened across the state.”
AISD is currently in a high-growth phase due to ongoing residential development and continued enrollment increases, according to PASA documents.
“Alvin ISD still has plenty of land to develop to continue that high growth,” Tepera said at the meeting.
Diving in deeper
Since the 2010-11 school year, AISD’s kindergarten enrollment has been higher than the number of births five years earlier, suggesting that the district is gaining additional students through families with school-aged children moving into the district, according to PASA documents.
This pattern differs from broader Region 4 and statewide trends, where kindergarten enrollment has tracked below birth cohorts in the same time period, according to PASA documents.
This gap may be influenced by increased use of charter schools, private schools and other alternative educational options, Tepera said at the meeting.
Also of note
Of 31,342 resident students, about 94.3% attend AISD schools. The remaining students are enrolled in charter schools, private schools, virtual academies or other school districts.
AISD retains the majority of its student population, with relatively limited enrollment in charter and private schools, Tepera said at the meeting.
What’s next
The 10-year forecast represents the most likely enrollment growth scenario based on available data at the time of the study.
PASA included accelerated and reduced scenarios to account for potential changes in housing development, mortgage rates, economic conditions, charter school expansion, birth trends and resulting kindergarten class sizes, according to PASA documents.
The background
PASA’s methodology combined multiple sources to develop a comprehensive review of current and future enrollment conditions, including demographic data collection, geocoding student residences, evaluating student-to-household ratios and analyzing housing and economic development trends across the district, Tepera said.
The presentation is intended to provide the district with long-term planning information by comparing projected student enrollment with available campus capacity, according to district documents.
