While the total population in Grapevine-Colleyville ISD has been increasing, the population under age 18 has been on the decline.

The details

Brent Alexander, director of demographic research with School District Strategies, gave an update on demographics to the Grapevine-Colleyville ISD board of trustees Jan. 22. Some of the numbers he gave in his report include the following with regard to the time frame from 2010-23:
  • Overall population has increased from 74,001 to 84,679.
  • Total households have increased from 29,072 to 34,430.
  • Population under the age of 18 has decreased from 18,751 to 17,020.
A closer look

Alexander broke out his data on the decline in the population under age 18 in the district to include the following data points over a 10-year time frame from the 2010 census to the 2020 census:
  • Ages 0-4: a decline of 499
  • Ages 5-9: a decline of 915
  • Ages 10-14: a decline of 1,164
  • Ages 15-17: an increase of 1,535
  • Total under age 18: a decline of 1,042 (total may not completely add up due to decimal rounding)
Alexander said recent census data shows nearly 1,000 school-age children live in the district but are not enrolled in GCISD.

“Many of those are transfers to other districts and to charter schools,” Alexander said.

He also attributed a factor in the decline of district enrollment being parents choosing to homeschool their children.

“As parents have more choices, we’ve seen that homeschool number generally grow over the past few years,” Alexander said.

Alexander said the 10-year decline represents a loss of nearly 9%, but the decline has gotten faster over the past five years, with one of the main factors being the COVID-19 pandemic:
  • 2013-18: a decline of 1.6%
  • 2018-23: a decline of 7.3%
Diving in deeper

Alexander called GCISD a “mature district,” where families move in and then age in place. He said the gap between the outgoing 12th grade classes and the incoming kindergarten and first grade classes has positioned GCISD for faster declining enrollment. Specifically, he said in the 2023-24 school year, the average grade size from eighth to 12th grade is 146 students larger than the average grade size from kindergarten to fourth grade.

Alexander pointed out housing affordability—both in multifamily housing and single-family homes—is an issue contributing to enrollment declines. Referring to Grapevine-area apartment rent and occupancy rates, he said as monthly rent has increased over the past two years, occupancy rates have declined.

In terms of single-family homes, Alexander noted the following when it came to GCISD preowned home sales:
  • A high interest rate environment has led to slower home sales in 2023.
  • Preowned homes in the district sold at a record median price of $597,000 in the third quarter of 2023.
  • Since 2013, the median preowned sales price has increased by 113%, with 44% of that increase since 2019.
Alexander projected district enrollment will continue to decline over the next 10 years. He said due to the lower than expected enrollment numbers in kindergarten through third grade, he expects a decline of 1% annually in the district over the next 10 years, which will represent an estimated enrollment of approximately 11,000 students in 2033.

Quote of note

“I want you to understand that this loss is not a reflection of performance in the district,” Alexander said. “Many of the people that have chosen to move here over the last 25 years are staying after their kids are grown. Affordability is a challenge and has kept younger families from coming into the district, and that’s starting to have an impact.”

Alexander's report was for informational purposes only. No action was taken by the GCISD board.