This has contributed to declining enrollment within LISD, which has dipped every school year since 2015-16.
Jennah Ciers, a local real estate agent, said LISD remains a desirable district to live in, which has contributed to higher home prices and a competitive market.
“First-time [homebuyers] are priced out of these established neighborhoods and that really does impact our schools,” Ciers said. “Now, we don’t have the same number of school-age children.”
One factor driving the slowdown of new families moving into the district is more homeowners are opting to age in place. Interest rates in the area are hovering around 6% to 7%, which is higher than what individuals who bought or refinanced in 2021 would have paid, and make many residents in the area reluctant to sell and buy again at higher monthly payments, said Bob Templeton, vice president of Zonda Demographics.
“Folks aren’t going to sell and relocate ... because if they need a mortgage, now they’re going to be at an interest rate that is near 7%,” he said. “That has a huge impact on the monthly payment.”
One of the reasons for LISD’s declining enrollment is the decreasing amount of home sales in the last three years. Between 2023 and 2024, new home sales declined by 14%, according to Zonda Education data.
New and older homes are about the same price, which encourages buyers to purchase new homes for their updated amenities, Templeton said.
Additionally, more multifamily homes are being constructed.
“A lot of these apartments are built for professionals, empty-nesters or lock-and-leave flexible housing arrangements because they may be here temporarily,” Templeton said. “So we don’t see high yields [of students] in multifamily.”
The impact
K.E. Boyd, a local real estate agent in North Texas, said that despite a buyer’s market, which is when the supply of houses exceeds the demand, younger families are being priced out of homebuying because home prices have substantially grown in recent years.
“We’re not seeing a lot of people move out because it’s a buyer’s market and they think it’s a horrible time to sell,” Boyd said.
Another factor in housing affordability is interest rates. Boyd said that for every 1% increase in interest rates, it corresponds to a 10% decrease in buying power for a homeowner.
If a homebuyer could afford a $600,000 house with a 4% interest rate, that same individual could only afford a $540,000 home with a 5% interest rate.
“When you’re used to looking at houses at $600,000 and now you are looking at houses that are $540,000, it’s difficult to make that shift because a $540,000 house is not going to be as nice as a $600,000,” she said.
The declining enrollment has led to less state funding for LISD since Texas schools gain state revenue based on average daily attendance.
“Forecasts project enrollment will stabilize around 43,000,” LISD Superintendent Lori Rapp said. “While this shift does impact our funding, we are proactively adjusting our budget to prioritize the classroom and protect the student experience.”
LISD trustees approved the closure of five elementary schools for the 2025-26 school year Dec. 9. This saved the district $2.3 million, according to district documents.
Additionally, as LISD reaches full build-out, property values are likely to increase, Boyd said. “There’s certain high schools around here that are in high demand,” she said. “When there is no more inventory left, it increases the value of those houses.”
If high interest rates persist, purchasing homes could remain challenging.
“Dropping the interest rates would be a big benefit to younger first-time homebuyers, and then they might get back into the market,” Templeton said.
