Projections indicate that the district will serve over 3,400 fewer students in ten years, but that number could be even higher if lower yields persist, Zonda Education demographer Rocky Gardiner told trustees March 17.
“We are running out of new housing and people are staying in their existing homes,” Gardiner said.
Why its happening
Total home sales within LISD have steadily declined over the last three years, due to larger subdivisions building out and declining lot availability. New home sales in the district accounted for 14% of the total district home sales in 2024, a decrease from 20% in 2023, according to Zonda Education documents.
The average home price is increasing as well. For existing homes, the average price is over $580,000 and for new ones it is over $800,000, making it difficult for new families to start homes in the district, Gardiner said. Additionally, the average interest rate for homes in the district is 2.9%, meaning people could find it difficult to find an equal sized home for the price they are paying and therefore are electing to stay in place, which can limit new families with children from moving into the district, Gardiner added.
More apartments and townhomes are being developed, which don’t yield a lot of students, because there isn’t much space for single family homes, Gardiner said.
“The inventory is low, the product is different and we’re not doing as much of it. That’s kind of scary,” he said.
Zooming in
LISD’s student yield for new developments is around three students for every 10 occupied homes, which is below the five- to six-student average across the state, according to Zonda documents.
Declining yield means that the kindergarten cohort is shrinking and fewer students are replacing those who graduate. Next year, kindergarten enrollment will be around 2,884 and around 3,951 for seniors, so the district is losing students through attrition, Gardiner said.
By the 2034-35 school year, total district enrollment is expected to plummet from 47,812 students to 44,472 students. However, in anticipation of the housing market continuing its downward trend, Gardiner provided an adjusted projection that would see a decline of almost 951 students in the 2025-26 school year and another 745 students by 2026-27. If that persisted each year, the 10-year decline could surpass the 3,400 student projections.
Also of note
At the current state funding allotment of $6,160 per student, a loss of 3,000 students would equate to over $18 million in funding loss. The board adopted a $4.5 million budget shortfall for the fiscal year 2024-25. The enrollment decline was one factor that precipitated discussions on school closures.
If enrollment declines more severely as Gardiner suggests, losing 951 students next school year would result in a $5.8 million funding decrease alone, should the 89th Legislature maintain the same allocation at the conclusion of this year's session.
Going forward
Zonda Education will return for another demographer report and further updates this May, Gardiner said.
