For the first time since U.S. House Rep. John Carter assumed office representing the 31st Congressional District, the congressman is facing a serious challenge from a Democrat candidate. According to FiveThirtyEight, a website that forecasts election results, Carter is still expected to win the election with 53.7 percent of the votes, with a 93.3 percent chance to win the election. If that result comes to fruition, that would represent the lowest share of the votes that Carter has collected in any of his races for the 31st District. MJ Hegar, the Democratic challenger in the 31st Congressional District race, represents the toughest challenge Carter has yet faced from Democrats. The Air Force veteran received national attention over the summer after one of her campaign videos garnered close to 3 million views on YouTube, and Hegar has raised $4.01 million for the congressional race — more than twice the amount Carter has raised.

HISTORICAL ELECTION RESULTS

Carter has represented the 31st Congressional District, which stretches from North Austin to Temple, since 2003, after winning the 2002 House of Representatives election with 69.1 percent of the votes. "Congressman Carter has a long history of delivering for Texas families, veterans and members of our military," the Carter campaign said in a statement provided to Community Impact Newspaper. In every election since, Carter has been re-elected with at least a 58.4 percent share of votes. In the past two Midterm Election cycles — 2014 and 2010 — Carter won with 62.24 percent and 80.49 percent of the votes from Williamson County, respectively. In 2010, Democrats didn't field a candidate. Despite the historically dominant election numbers, Carter's hold on the district is exepected to dip this year due to several contributing factors. Williamson County, like the rest of Central Texas, experienced a spike in registered voters, many of which are expected to come from young voters. Democrats have also diverted more resources to races in Texas than in years prior, with candidates running in every Texas Congressional election for the first time in more than two decades. "It feels like people have choices for the first time in a long time," Hegar told Community Impact Newspaper on Tuesday morning. "It feels more like an awakening than it does a 'Blue Wave.'" As a result, the county is experiencing remarkable increases in midterm election voting habits. Williamson County residents cast more ballots in the early voting period this election cycle than during the 2016 presidential election, an unprecedented voting pattern. In total, more than 163,000 Williamson County registered voters cast early voting ballots this election cycle, a 96.8 percent increase from the 2014 midterm early voting numbers. As of 1 p.m., 20,189 people had cast Election Day ballots in Williamson County, according to the county’s elections department. Democrats in particular are voting more in 2018 than in midterm elections past. More than 24,000 Democrats voted in the March 6 Williamson County Democratic primary election for the 31st Congressional District race, an increase of more than 3,000 voters from the 2016 primary. In the 2014 midterm primary for the congressional seat, just 6,196 Williamson County Democrats cast a vote for Louie Minor, who ran uncontested. The Democrats didn't field a candidate in the 2010 midterms. Both candidates will appear in the Round Rock area tonight for election wrap up parties. Rep. Carter is scheduled to speak at a Williamson County Republican Party event at the Wingate by Wyndham Round Rock Hotel, located at 1209 N. I-35, Round Rock, per campaign spokesperson Bruce Harvie. That event is slated to kick off at 7 p.m. Hegar will join Democrat candidates for a watch party at Mesa Rosa, located at 15515 RM 620 N., Austin, beginning at 6:30 p.m.