Chris Coleman, who leads operational forecasting for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, said this summer will likely be “hotter than normal,” following some of the hottest summers on record in recent years. However, ERCOT leaders said there is little risk for a grid emergency, including power outages.
“As we get into the start of the summer season... the state of the grid is strong; it is reliable,” ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas told the agency’s board of directors June 24. “It's as reliable as it has ever been, [and] I feel confident that we are ready for this upcoming summer season.”
What you need to know
Coleman said the majority of Texas will likely experience above-normal temperatures and limited rainfall this summer, noting that the state is “off to a little bit cooler start than last year.”
“Even though this summer thus far... has not been overly extreme, there's a chance here we're seeing rain dwindling here going forward,” Coleman told board members June 24. “That first week of July may be a period of interest for more extreme temperatures than what we've seen [so far], especially right after the fourth.”
Coleman said that five of Texas’ hottest summers have occurred in the past 15 years: 2011 was the state’s hottest summer on record, while 2023 was the second-hottest summer and 2022 ranks third. Although summer 2024 had more rainfall than average, it was also Texas’ sixth-hottest.
Officials also anticipate that electric demand could surpass 87,000 megawatts this summer, up from the current record of 85,508 megawatts, which was set in August 2023. Nonetheless, the risk of emergency grid conditions is “shrinking,” Vegas said, due to “reliable management of the grid,” expanded grid capacity and new laws passed during the recent state legislative session.
Over 9,000 megawatts of generation capacity have been added to Texas’ power grid in the past year, including 5,395 megawatts of solar generation resources and 3,821 megawatts of electric storage capacity, according to Vegas’ June 24 presentation.
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There is less than a 0.5% chance of rotating blackouts this summer, according to ERCOT estimates. The tightest periods will be around 9 p.m. each day, when energy usage is high and solar energy capacity decreases as the sun sets.
“Oftentimes, wind picks up in the evenings in Texas, and so you have kind of this handoff from the solar power to the wind power,” Vegas told Community Impact in 2024. "But that doesn't happen every day.”
When demand is high, and wind and solar capacity are low, ERCOT may direct large industrial customers to reduce their power consumption. If that does not do enough to keep the grid balanced, officials may then ask Texans to voluntarily reduce their energy use for a few hours.
The last time ERCOT asked residents to conserve electricity was during a January 2024 freeze, according to agency records.
Also of note
During Texas’ 140-day regular legislative session, which ended June 2, lawmakers adopted stricter regulations for large electric consumers, such as data centers, and introduced a state cyber command center.
Senate Bill 6 is aimed at better preparing the state for future grid emergencies. The law, which took effect immediately after Gov. Greg Abbott signed it on June 20, directs customers that use at least 75 megawatts of power, such as data centers and industrial projects, to switch to backup generators to reduce strain on the grid during extreme conditions.
Large electric customers are also required to install equipment allowing the state to remotely disconnect power from their facilities, known as a “kill switch” provision. Bill sponsor Rep. Ken King, R-Canadian, said May 26 that these rules would encourage large customers to rely fully on backup power during emergencies.
“We certainly don't want large-load customers that sometimes are data centers for military operations to just be without power,” he said.
After ERCOT estimated in early 2025 that power demand could grow to about 150,000 megawatts by 2030, SB 6 adjusts how the grid operator measures future demand. Large customers that intend to join the state grid will be required to notify ERCOT if they are considering taking their projects to other states and pay their local utility company a $100,000 fee before the planning process begins.
Abbott signed House Bill 150 into law in early June. The measure, which takes effect Sept. 1, will create a San Antonio-based state cyber command center designed to anticipate and respond to potential cybersecurity threats.
In a June 11 interview, Abbott emphasized the importance of strong cybersecurity infrastructure as Texas works to strengthen its energy systems and other infrastructure.
“There have been stories where power systems were shut down, water systems were shut down, things like that, because of cyber attacks,” he said. “Everything that we're working to try to expand and grow and maintain could be shut down by cyber attack. We need to upgrade and upgrade quickly.”
