Employees added in anticipation of stronger holiday sales season
High expectations highlight this holiday shopping season, with both local and national experts anticipating retail sales spikes, and seasonal employees may benefit most.
The National Retail Federation predicts year-over-year sales will increase a combined 4.1 percent in November and December compared with a 3.1 percent national increase the same time last year. Travis County is also expected to improve upon its 8.9 percent year-over-year increase in sales tax collections, said Angelou Angelos, principal executive officer for Austin-based economic analysis firm AngelouEconomics. Angelos, who will provide his 30th and final annual Austin economic forecast Jan. 8 at the Austin Convention Center, said September sales taxes increased 10 percent compared with September 2013, suggesting momentum is high heading into the holiday shopping season for both retailers and the seasonal employees likely to be hired to handle the extra shoppers.
"Overall, I would expect retail sales in Austin to be slightly better than last year—even though last year was pretty good—based on the numbers we've seen so far," Angelos said.
Austin benefits from a 3.5 percent annual population increase, he said, while the rest of the country is growing at a 1 percent rate.
"Those new residents coming from other states are definitely counted among the new shoppers in Austin," said Angelos, who also points to decreased unemployment rates locally and nationally as rationale for the positive predictions.
The Austin Independent Business Alliance also expects a healthy holiday shopping season for its 800-plus members—all locally owned businesses, Executive Director Rebecca Melancon said.
"The businesses are about to get just unbelievably busy," Melancon said.
More business, more jobs
The same national report predicts as many as 800,000 part-time hires this holiday season, up from 768,000 last year. Local prospective employees may have the upper hand, Angelos said, because of the Austin area's low unemployment rate—about 4.2 percent compared with 5.8 percent nationally.
"With the labor market tightening, there's going to be a problem obviously finding workers, and if you do find them will they work for the wages offered in the retail sector?" Angelos said.
But holiday help is not optional for most businesses, which record 20 percent to 40 percent of their annual sales during this time, according to multiple sources.
"If business is increasing that much, you'll want to increase your workforce accordingly," said Lea Willingham, area general manager for The Domain, The Arboretum, The Shops at Arbor Walk and Gateway shopping centers.
To ensure the proper holiday hires are made, more retailers are starting the process sooner, Willingham said. The extra time ensures new employees are properly trained to best represent that retailer's brand, she said.
"A good, solid employee who embraces the company and does well has a really good chance to stay because there's always a natural progression in retail," Willingham said.
National clothing outlets Old Navy, The Gap and Banana Republic will hire up to 63,000 part-time employees nationwide to help handle the holiday workload, said Jada Ray, a floor manager for the Old Navy store in the Mueller neighborhood. The Wal-Mart on West Anderson Lane and Target on I-35 in East Austin are also hiring, two Austin-based managers confirmed.
Local vs. national vs. online
Other locally based retailers choose to invest more in additional holiday merchandise. Susana Vivanco, owner of the Avon store in Highland Mall, said she benefits by being the only Austin-area brick-and-mortar retailer of the national makeup brand, which is otherwise sold in catalogs and online.
Vivanco began her version of Black Friday early to help drum up business at the depleted mall, which is about one-quarter occupied but has no set date for closure despite the recent opening of the Austin Community College Highland Campus next door.
"I try my best to have the best deals of the year," Vivanco said. "Even the [Avon] catalog doesn't have the deals I have."
Her store has fared well at the mall for five years "despite everybody's predictions," said Vivanco, who also owns Highland Mall food court eatery La Chaparrita.
Barton Creek Square Mall and Lakeline Mall intend on opening at 6 p.m. Thanksgiving Day, said Matthew A. Beyerstedt, general manager for Lakeline Mall, Lakeline Plaza and Lakeline Village. The malls will remain open till 1 a.m. before reopening at 6 a.m. Black Friday, he said.
"The extended hours not only have a positive impact on the businesses but are also more convenient shopping hours to come out here and enjoy," Beyerstedt said.
But most independent businesses in Austin do not plan on opening early to compete against the national retailers, Melancon said.
"[Black Friday] is a big hype machine, and we don't compete for those people who are willing to stand in line from 2 in the morning for a really cheap price for something—that's not what we do," Melancon said. "What local businesses do offer is a unique selection, mostly bigger selections and an employee knowledge base that's much more helpful."
A recent study conducted by her alliance showed that if shoppers only patronized locally owned retail businesses on Black Friday, Austin sales tax collections would increase by $14 million. And as more shopping occurs online, Melancon maintains the best value can be found in locally managed retailers, citing a recent analysis in which her organization compared the cost of goods between her membership and national competitors.
"We found most things at local businesses cost a few cents to a couple dollars more, which to some makes a difference," she said. "But for anybody who has a choice, you really benefit and our community benefits so much more by choosing local."
