The background
During SABOR’s Jan. 12 housing forecast event at JW Marriott San Antonio Hill Country Resort and Spa, SABOR Board Chair Will Curtis said home sales growth, which had been strong for much of 2023, went down last fall.
According to SABOR data, the average home sale price in the San Antonio metropolitan area was $411,000 at the end of 2023, a 7.4% drop from the end of 2022.
In Bexar County, home sales totaled 23,276 by the end of 2023—a 10.7% decrease over the end of 2022.
Curtis said active home listings, which hovered above a monthly number of 12,300 during the fall, dropped to below 12,000 in December.
KC Conway, a commercial real estate economist, said inflation, lack of affordability and interest rate hikes would continue to affect commercial and residential real estate markets, as well as capital markets.
Digging deeper
Conway and other event speakers said, in turn, things could be challenging for some homebuyers and home sellers in 2024.
Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors, said some of those industry difficulties include young and aspiring first-time homebuyers are struggling with interest rates and lack of affordability.
“I can pretend like I have good information, but I don't have good information,” said Lautz.
Bryan Glasshagel, senior vice president of advisory with housing data company Zonda, said the amount of new home sales has increased while the amount of existing home sales has decreased.
According to Zonda’s data, the new home market held 35% of total closings in 2023, higher than the 31% that new homes held among local closings in the previous year.
But Glasshagel said resilience in the local economy has helped to shore up homebuyers and home sellers’ confidence in some parts of the housing market, such as increased annual home construction starts.
According to SABOR data, new home construction starts remain hot in far west San Antonio, much of the deep south side, and between I-35 and I-10 in the New Braunfels/Seguin area.
Zonda data showed that base home prices overall are stabilizing thanks in part to incentives offered by home sellers. Base prices increased 9% between June 2022 and November 2023.
