What we reported In a September report, the Greater Houston Partnership announced jobs are still being lost in the oil and gas sector—300 jobs were lost in July. Meanwhile, the metropolitan area’s unemployment rate increased from 4.9 percent in August 2015 to 5.8 percent in August 2016, according to a Texas Workforce Commission news release issued in September.

The latest GHP released its yearly employment forecast Dec. 9 after a panel discussion with business leaders from the banking, health care, energy and real estate industries. Occidental Petroleum Corporation President Joseph Elliott told the audience he believes oil prices will start at around $49 per barrel in 2017 and climb to about $54 per barrel by the end of the year. “2017 will see a slow increase in oil prices,” he said.

What’s next According to GHP, Houston’s economic downturn is over and a slow recovery has begun. Job growth will not return to normal for another year or so, and GHP predicts a wide, flat growth curve. Recovery for the energy industry is not expected to occur until crude prices approach $60, and the recovery in manufacturing depends on a steady rise in the rig count.