Although Cy-Fair ISD has spent many years as one of the fastest growing school districts in Texas, officials with the Population and Survey Analysts demographics firm say growth may be slowing.
In the 2016-17 school year, projections indicate the incoming CFISD kindergarten class will have 700 fewer students than the year before, according to PASA, which provides an annual demographics study to the district. This decrease in students could have ripple effects for the next 12 years as that class ages, including the potential for delayed school openings.
“Although the district has increased at tremendous rates in large numbers, I believe 2005 was the last really large increase of almost 7,000 students added in one year,” PASA President Pat Guseman said at a June 22 CFISD work session. “This past year, there was a net of under 940 students added. The growth is basically slowing annually.”
Future planning
The change in enrollment may delay the building of future CFISD facilities, but the decline will not stop it entirely, said Roy Sprague, associate superintendent of facilities, construction and support services.
“We were looking at Middle School [No.] 19 opening for the 2019-20 [school] year, and now that is pushed back to open for the 2020-21 school year,” Sprague said. “We don’t want to open a school that has very little population because we spend a lot of money to operate that building.”
When the district opens a new school, it has an ideal population in mind to justify opening and operation costs at each education level, Sprague said. To open an elementary school, the number is 1,040 students; for a middle school, the number is 1,530 students; and for a high school, it is 3,300 students.
If the projected student population is not high enough to justify a new school, the opening or construction of new schools is delayed. This decision is made by in part by Teresa Hull, associate superintendent of governmental relations, communications and chief of staff.
Hull and her team examine population growth data and look at reports by PASA, then present recommendations to the CFISD board of trustees.
In past years, PASA has indicated CFISD would eventually cap out with 135,000-140,000 students. Sprague said as growth slows down, the build-out projection range could shrink to a maximum of 128,000 students.
Despite the slowdown, CFISD has to continually prepare for future growth, Sprague said. He said the school district is always looking for affordable plots of land for future schools.
The average timeline of a school to be built takes two years: four to six months to design a facility and 13-14 months to construct it, Sprague said. A deferred timeline could affect CFISD financially.
“When schools get pushed back over time, we see inflationary increases in construction costs, which could have a financial impact over time,” Sprague said.
Reasons for slowing growth
The steep downturn in enrollment growth for 2016-17 comes from a decline in area births overall, Guseman said. She said it could also be attributed to new housing developments offering more expensive homes.
“Those younger homeowners are moving in less than they did historically,” Guseman said.
Roughly 72 percent of Cy-Fair consists of built-out or completed neighborhoods where children are leaving homes for higher education and parents are becoming empty nesters, according to PASA. Last year, 1,300 students who lived in these built-out areas left CFISD.
New home closings in Cy-Fair are on the decline, Guseman said. In March 2016, they declined 8 percent compared to March 2015. In addition, developed lots that remain vacant, or homes already built that nobody has purchased, are up 27 percent compared to this time last year.
Projected growth
Of land tracts under development, the majority of new homes projected to be built over the next few years will be in the Bridgeland, Towne Lake, Westfield Village, Canyon Lakes West and Mason Westgreen areas, most of which are located on the west side of the district’s boundaries. Guseman said building of schools and facilities must focus on this area.
“A lot is happening on the west side of [CFISD],” she said. “This is very important growth tied with student growth.”
Developments located on the western side of Cy-Fair have the highest ratio of students per home, with Bridgeland homes having an average of 0.82, Fairfield with 0.86 and Westfield Village with 0.86 students per home. By comparison, Copperfield’s average amount of students per home is 0.47, Towne Lake’s is 0.56 and Wheatstone’s average is 0.5.
Bridgeland High School—under construction along the Grand Parkway near where the proposed Bridgeland Creek Parkway and Mason Road extension will eventually be constructed—will open in August 2017 to accommodate district growth.
CFISD ranks third among all Greater Houston area school districts for projected new housing growth in 2015-25. CFISD has typically topped this list, but PASA moved the district down because of the lack of available land within the boundaries. PASA also projects deceleration in housing starts on the west side of CFISD, with 3,300 planned housing units no longer being built.
“[Several factors] had a massive impact on Bridgeland where there are large parcels that are already ready for development,” Guseman said. “Now it is occurring, but it is delayed.”
