Kim, Chase, Garrett and Mason McGurrin review homework in their Village of Sterling Ridge home.[/caption]
A recent study projecting student populations in Conroe ISD reveals The Woodlands is sending fewer students to district schools, while more students are enrolling in private schools. According to the report conducted by Population and Survey Analysts released in January, the eight Woodlands villages located in Conroe ISD sent 338 fewer students to district schools in 2014 than they did in 2013, a decrease of 2.1 percent.
The report stated that although there are still a small number of housing units projected to be built in The Woodlands before it reaches build-out, “the gain of students in this new housing will likely be offset by the continued aging ... of families in the existing homes.”
That trend could result in continued student enrollment decline in The Woodlands, according to PASA.
“You see [student population declines] in most communities when they age out,” said Debbie Ratcliff, director of media relations for the Texas Education Agency. “Communities reinvigorate when younger families move back in. It’s fairly cyclical.”
The result of declining student populations at a particular campus could result in a decrease in funding for that campus, or the elimination of classes or teaching positions, Ratcliff said.
However, those scenarios are not likely in CISD schools located in The Woodlands.
“This is still a very healthy district,” Ratcliff said. “I’d say it’s highly unlikely that would happen.”
According to the TEA, a portion of school funding is based on its enrollment.
“What happens in schools is that funding is based on the number of students and daily attendance,” Ratcliff said. “If their attendance goes down, their funding would go down.”
However, Ratcliff said CISD’s student population as a whole is still growing, and campuses that have increased enrollment numbers help offset any potential funding cuts to campuses with decreasing populations.
“What may happen in those schools in The Woodlands is class sizes may go down, but it’s not enough of a drop to eliminate classes,” she said.
Enrollment trends
The end of new home construction in The Woodlands will occur in about three years, according to The Woodlands Development Company. While home construction will cease, enrollments at the 18 schools in The Woodlands is not expected to significantly decline.
According to the study, many campuses will likely see their enrollment numbers plateau by about 2017.
CISD Superintendent Don Stockton said the district employs zoning strategies to populate schools in communities with aging populations.
“The surrounding communities are contributing to the growth [in CISD],” Stockton said. “The population in The Woodlands is not going to grow, but the population around it is.”
An example of that dynamic is the FM 1488 corridor where several apartment complexes have recently opened.
“There are so many apartments on [FM] 1488, and they continue to build, so that gives us some flexibility on where kids in those apartments go,” Stockton said. “We try to be as geographically close as possible, but there are some pockets where the [students] aren’t close to anything.”
Families in The Woodlands
According to the demographic report, there are 37,830 housing units in the portion of The Woodlands within CISD. That number is expected to increase by only 755 units by 2024.
Tim Welbes, co-president of the Development Company, said potential student populations in The Woodlands could come as a result of gentrification of older neighborhoods.
Welbes said for the past few decades, one-third of new home sales in The Woodlands have been to buyers already living in the community. Those buyers’ children often have aged and moved out, and in some cases back to The Woodlands to buy their own homes and raise their own families, he said.
“When we had two generations [of families in The Woodlands], you had a higher likelihood that one of those [generations] had children in school,” he said. “Now, we’ve got housing occupied by other consumers [who] don’t have kids in school.”
Welbes said the initial decline in the number of students in The Woodlands could be representative of changing demographics in the community.
“If the 2 percent decline [in Woodlands students in CISD] doesn’t reverse, and you go three or four years with flat or further declines, the multigenerational [trend] is a reality,” he said.
Education alternatives
Projected increases in Woodlands private schools could also have an effect on enrollment at local public schools. The PASA study included current enrollment figures of private schools located in CISD. Fifteen schools that reported their figures are in The Woodlands. The study also included five-year enrollment projections.
According to the study, there are 4,319 students attending private schools located in The Woodlands, 84 percent of which would otherwise be enrolled in CISD schools. In five years, private school enrollment in The Woodlands is expected to increase by 35 percent to 5,828, 81 percent of which will be students otherwise zoned to attend CISD schools.
This year, 3,648 students in The Woodlands, or about 17 percent of CISD’s 2014 enrollment, are enrolled in private schools, based on a statistical analysis by Community Impact Newspaper. Private schools not located in The Woodlands enroll about 6 percent of CISD’s 2014 student population.
“The Woodlands Christian Academy has experienced incredible growth over the past five years,” said Julie Ambler, Woodlands Christian Academy head of school. “We have increased in size by approximately 73 percent, averaging 10 percent growth each year.”
Stockton said those numbers would not have a significant effect on enrollment in schools in The Woodlands.
“The enrollment at private schools is considered in our projections, and due to the rapid growth of the area, there is minimal impact to our schools,” he said.
