Fort Bend ISD will need additional schools in the northwest and southeast sections of the district, with young families expected to populate the swaths of vacant land in those areas, as it develops in the coming years, according to a recent report on the district’s population demographics.

The report, issued by research consulting firm Population and Survey Analysts, or PASA, shows FBISD can expect the biggest influx of future students to follow the patterns of housing and commercial development in the district.

“Due to continued growth along the Grand Parkway corridor and PASA’s most recent projections, Fort Bend ISD recently initiated the design process of another elementary school in the Aliana community, which will relieve the over-utilization at Madden Elementary [school],” FBISD spokesperson Amanda Bubela wrote in an email.

For example, the report names Sienna Plantation, Riverstone and parts of Arcola—all clustered near the southeast end of the district—Aliana and the area east of the Grand Parkway—sidling the northwest corner of the district—as the communities and subdivisions that will produce the majority of future FBISD students over the coming 10 years.

Apartments increase enrollment

Justin Silhavy, director of demographic projections at PASA, said multifamily housing developments in FBISD produce a higher number of students than do multifamily developments in other parts of the state, with apartments in FBISD producing 0.41 students per unit. That average is significant, he said, because many more apartments can be fit onto an area of land than can single-family homes.

“When you talk about hundreds or thousands of apartments, the number of students can really add up,” he said.

By comparison, the PASA report estimates the average single-family home produces 0.56 students.

Silhavy noted the number of students per apartment recorded in Katy and Lamar ISDs is smaller. The higher average could be a result of the higher number of immigrants in FBISD, Silhavy said, suggesting immigrants might be less opposed than native-born Americans to raising families in apartments as opposed to single-family homes.

However, Silhavy said the number of students living in multifamily housing developments has increased in the years since the Great Recession, which turned many home-owning families into renting families.

“That average is increasing all over Texas suburban areas,” he said.

The report notes a high number of multifamily housing units are being built or planned for areas near the Grand Parkway and FM 1464.

“Areas like Grand Parkway will be magnets for multifamily housing,” Silhavy said.

Uneven growth expected

While the northwest and southeast corners of the district are expected to see a big increase in students, other parts of the school district, especially areas near the boundaries of Houston, Alief and Stafford school districts, are projected to see little to no growth in student populations over the coming years. Some FBISD schools, including Dulles High School, are expected to see their enrollments decrease in coming years, according to PASA. Enrollments at some of those schools are well below the number of students the buildings are able to handle.

The housing stock in those areas was built decades ago, and younger homebuyers tend to be attracted to newer neighborhoods and newly constructed homes, Silhavy said.

“You have a lot of aging communities here,” he said. “Developing neighborhoods are very different than ones that have been around for 20 or 30 years.”

Enrollment increase expected

PASA predicts FBISD’s student enrollment will increase a little more than 16 percent between now and 2026: from about 74,000 students to nearly 86,000 students, according to the report.

Part of the reason PASA projects enrollment to pick up in the coming years is because family formation and the number of births in the county have increased since dwindling in the years around the Great Recession.

“Every district in Texas saw a dip,” said Silhavy. “It’s normal to see families sort of rethink family planning. When you think about it, when you lose your job—like millions of Americans did—you’ll think twice about having another child.”

Silhavy said the growth that is projected in the student population will require more schools to be built in the near future.

“They can’t let their guard down,” Silhavy said. “Schools will be needed for years to come.  There are still tens of thousands of homes to be built. It’s not going to end in 2026.”