Enrollment at Alvin ISD has grown by over 1% since the 2023-24 school year, according to 2024 third quarter enrollment projections by Zonda Demographics.

The projection forecast was presented to Alvin ISD’s board of trustees at its Nov. 12 meeting.

The overview

Alvin ISD currently has nearly 30,070 students enrolled. Enrollment forecasts project enrollment will be over 33,000 students by 2029, and over 36,000 by 2034, according to Zonda.
By the 2025-26 school year, Pomona Elementary, McNair Junior High and Shadow Creek High School are projected to reach overcapacity, according to Zonda.

By the 2031-32 school year, the following schools are projected to reach overcapacity:
  • Barbara Bennett Elementary
  • Bob and Betty Nelson Elementary
  • Nichols Mock Elementary
  • Pomona Elementary
  • Bel Nafegar Sanchez Elementary
  • Jackie Doucet Caffey Junior High
  • Iowa Colony Junior High
  • Rodeo Palms Junior High
  • Iowa Colony High School
  • Manvel High School
Also of note


Rocky Gardiner, the director of Zonda Education and education consultant for AISD, said he is hopeful the 2024 bond passed in November will help manage the anticipated growth in the district.

The bond, which is aimed to manage the district’s growth, will consist of the following projects:
  • Two new elementary schools
  • One new junior high school
  • One replacement campus to replace Stevenson Primary and Disney Elementary
  • Renovations and additions to Alvin and Manvel High Schools
  • A safety and security package
  • Land acquisition
Diving in deeper

Part of the increased enrollment is attributed to kindergarten enrollment, data shows. Kindergarten enrollment is analyzed through district births to project how many students in the coming years will enter the district.

The percentage of students that attend AISD for kindergarten compared to the number of students born inside the district has increased by over 10% since 2011, data shows. This means that students not born in the district are moving into the district at a higher rate.


Projections anticipate this percentage will continue to increase, according to Zonda.
What else?

The district also has over 60 actively building subdivisions, and over 30 future subdivisions currently in planning, according to Zonda.

As the year progresses, home starts and closings have steadily decreased compared to 2023, Zonda data shows.
One more thing

Despite the decrease in new home starts, AISD is ranked number nine in Houston’s new home rankings with the following data:
  • Over 1,550 annual starts
  • Over 1,500 annual closings
  • Nearly 3,300 vacant developed lots
  • Nearly 18,090 future lots