The overview
AISD in the second quarter of 2023 had the seventh most home sales of all Houston-area school districts. Additionally, AISD is projected to continue to grow in the coming years as more subdivisions are built, according to a presentation from Zonda Education, which is tasked with projecting the district’s future enrollment.
The district’s area of coverage includes 33 future subdivisions with groundwork underway on about 1,900 homes, according to the data.
While AISD has been a fast-growing district in recent years—and trends suggest that will continue—the district’s enrollment increases are expected to slow down in the coming years, according to the data.
Diving in deeper
New enrollment for AISD has eclipsed 1,000 a few times in the past several years, but that rate of growth could be seen for the foreseeable future, according to data from Zonda.
The district going into the next decade can expect average enrollment to hover anywhere from around 600 to 800 new students every year.
“The market is eventually going to settle in,” said Rocky Gardiner, Zonda’s director of school district consulting.
However, even with a slower rate of growth in student population, several schools in the district, as soon as the 2024-25 school year, will be over capacity, according to the data. That list increases deeper into the future.
What else?
Along with an increasing student population, AISD has seen home values within its boundaries increase by over 30% compared to last year, officials said in June.
Meanwhile, AISD’s growing enrollment is unusual when compared to other districts in the area. Pearland ISD, Friendswood ISD and Clear Creek ISD, for example, are all seeing stagnating enrollment.
Stay tuned
Zonda is part of the team tasked with helping create new school boundaries for AISD, Gardiner said at the meeting. That work is expected to begin in the coming weeks and will ultimately need final approval from the district’s board.
