Despite statewide trends, Alvin ISD enrollment continues to grow

Alvin ISD trustees meet in the AISD Heritage Complex at 10855 Iowa Colony Blvd. (Colleen Ferguson/Community Impact Newspaper)
Alvin ISD trustees meet in the AISD Heritage Complex at 10855 Iowa Colony Blvd. (Colleen Ferguson/Community Impact Newspaper)

Alvin ISD trustees meet in the AISD Heritage Complex at 10855 Iowa Colony Blvd. (Colleen Ferguson/Community Impact Newspaper)

Unlike other ISDs across Texas, Alvin ISD is not seeing enrollment decreases during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Trustees and community members heard insights and reviewed data from Templeton Demographics during a Nov. 9 board meeting. Bob Templeton, vice president of the company’s school district segment, said AISD’s enrollment increased by nearly 1,160 in 2021-22 compared to 2020-21.

About 29,000 students are expected to enroll in fall 2022, per TD data; enrollment this school year is about 28,100.

The Southlake-based company works with about 100 districts across the state, and Templeton said about half are seeing their enrollment bounce back this year compared to last year. The other half are experiencing enrollment declines in 2021-22.

“It’s been a very mixed year in terms of the impacts on enrollment,” he said Nov. 9. “The delta variant’s impact on the pandemic really kind of took hold in July, and we started to see some effects from that with many of our clients.”


AISD did experience an enrollment drop in 2020-21 along with many other suburban and urban districts, he said. However, the district is seeing record numbers of first-graders this school year with students returning after choosing alternative kindergarten options in 2020-21.

In regard to learning loss, early elementary students will likely be some of the most affected since many young learners took a sort of gap year during the pandemic, Templeton added.

“It is somewhat problematic for the long-term learning loss that’s happening and the delay that’s building,” he said.

Annual housing research from TD shows AISD is ranked eighth out of 20 Houston-area ISDs in terms of annual closings. More homes have been started within AISD boundaries during the first three quarters of 2021 than in all of 2020, per TD data. New home starts and closings are up in 2021 for the sixth consecutive year.

“You’re likely going to be seeing a couple thousand homes a year for the foreseeable future,” Templeton said.

Of the district’s top 10 active subdivisions, the 3,000-acre community Meridiana in Iowa Colony is most active, closing more than 330 homes per year on average, per TD data. There are 28 subdivisions actively building in AISD, per TD data.

Nearly 12,000 future lots are available in the top 10 subdivisions alone, Templeton said. While the number of students per house can vary and the price point of homes has a significant effect on this figure, Templeton gave an estimate of 0.5-0.8 children per home on average.

Roughly 2,000 homes or lots would constitute an elementary school’s worth of students and families, meaning that by the time the active subdivisions are built out, the district could need as many as six additional elementary schools to account for the growth, he said.

Next year, three elementary campuses are expected to exceed the building’s total temporary or flex capacity in terms of enrolled students, per TD data. Two campuses will be over permanent building capacity. AISD, the largest district in Brazoria County, has a total of 19 elementary schools as of this academic year.

The district will open a new elementary school in summer 2023 and complete a rebuild of Alvin Elementary by summer 2024. These two projects are a result of the $480.5 million bond passed by voters in 2018. This bond was the largest yet for AISD, Community Impact Newspaper previously reported.

TD forecasted 1.5-3.6% growth for AISD’s enrollment each year through 2031-32, according to the data presented Nov. 9. The district is expected to exceed 30,000 in enrollment within the next five academic years. Enrollment is expected to be at nearly 35,000 by fall 2031.

Click here to watch the Nov. 9 board meeting and enrollment presentation, which starts at approximately the 21-minute mark.
By Colleen Ferguson

Reporter, Bay Area

A native central New Yorker, Colleen worked as an editorial intern with the Cy-Fair and Lake Houston | Humble | Kingwood editions of Community Impact Newspaper before joining the Bay Area team in 2020. She covers public education, higher education, business and development news in southeast Houston. Colleen graduated in 2019 from Syracuse University and the S.I. Newhouse School of Public Communications, where she worked for the university's independent student newspaper The Daily Orange. Her degrees are in journalism and Spanish language and culture. When not chasing a story, Colleen can be found petting cats and dogs, listening to podcasts, swimming or watching true crime documentaries.



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