New Caney ISD’s student enrollment is expected to grow by roughly 23%-58% over the next decade, which would require the addition of seven to eight new schools, according to a report presented on March 17 from demographics firm Population and Survey Analysts.

The overview

The district has 19,420 students enrolled for the 2024-25 school year, and over the last five school years—since 2020-21—enrollment has grown about 19.3%, according to Texas Education Agency data. PASA officials predict enrollment to land at about 23,900-30,600 students by the 2034-35 school year, according to the report.

PASA officials predict growth primarily in the northern portion of the district over the next decade, due largely to new single- and multi-family housing projects that are already adding additional residences or are planned for the area.

According to PASA’s report, NCISD will see:
  • About 18,000 new occupants living in the district over the next decade
  • About 500-875 students added each year due to new housing options
Meanwhile, only about 60 students are expected to leave over the next five years for charter schools or virtual options, per the report. However, TEA data shows NCISD lost 677 students for net transfers—transfers in minus transfers out—from 2019-24, as previously reported by Community Impact.
The impact


NCISD’s forecasted student enrollment growth over the next 10 years would cause several schools to exceed capacity, according to PASA.

New schools needed will include:
  • Four to five new elementary schools
  • Two new middle schools
  • One new high school
The soonest NCISD’s schools will exceed 120% of capacity is predicted to be by the 2027-28 school year—for New Caney and Porter elementary schools—according to PASA’s report. Meanwhile, the secondary-level schools would not exceed 120% capacity until the 2028-29 and 2029-30 school years—for Keefer Crossing Middle School and Porter High School—respectively.
Put in perspective

In PASA’s April 2022 report, NCISD’s enrollment was projected to rise to roughly 25,000 students by 2031-32, as previously reported by Community Impact. Voters approved a $695 million bond package for NCISD in May 2023 that includes five new campuses, expansions and renovations to existing schools, as well as extracurricular upgrades.

As previously reported, several of NCISD’s bond initiatives were aimed at addressing future enrollment, including:
  • Elementary School No. 12, a $44 million campus in The Highlands
  • Elementary School No. 13, a $50 million campus in the northeast section of the district
  • The $76 million second phase of West Fork High School, which will add 750 seats in addition to a new gymnasium and locker rooms
  • Middle schools No. 5 and 6—which are each expected to cost $108 million and house 1,100 students—will be built in the northwestern and northeastern portions of the district, respectively.
What else?


Single-family housing will make up 66.7% of projected new housing within NCISD's boundaries, while multifamily developments will make up 28.3% and manufactured housing will be 2.8%, according to PASA.

Per the report, the single-family and multifamily developments expected to add the most units over the next decade include:
  • The Highlands single-family neighborhood, which is under development and has 1,672 projected units
  • The Aurous Tract, which is being planned and has 2,036 single-family projected units
  • An unnamed potential multifamily development that would bring 550 units
  • An unnamed potential multifamily development in the commerce district that would add 500 units
Wesley Gardner contributed to this report.