The peak of coronavirus cases is expected to occur between April 6-15, said Jacquelyn Minter, Fort Bend County Health and Human Services Department director and local health authority.
She provided this estimate from University of Texas modeling at the special meeting of the Fort Bend County Commissioners Court on March 31.
With this estimate, case counts would wind down in May, she said.
“That would be a really desirable scenario for us,” Minter said. “Economically and healthwise, the impact would be as small as possible.”
UT is working on an updated model for the peak, but Minter did not receive it in time for the March 31 meeting, she said.
Additionally, about 14%-22% of all confirmed positive coronavirus cases need to be hospitalized, she said. Of those about 10% need intensive care unit or ICU-like care.
HHS does not have an estimate of how many beds are occupied at this time nor local hospitals' capacities, she said. But the county is meeting with these hospitals regularly, she said.
“SouthEast Texas Regional Advisory Council puts those numbers out," Minter said. "One of the problems with the number is the hospitals don't fully report. ... As far as current capacity, we don't have those numbers in the health department.”
She continued: “Hospitals are notorious for not reporting fully. ... They don’t have to give me anything. [SETRAC] is their reporting structure.”
HHS is using a 2018 report created in the event of a flu pandemic to project what could happen in Fort Bend County with the coronavirus, Minter said. But the coronavirus behaves differently compared to the flu, she pointed out.
Community Impact Newspaper has reached out for this 2018 report, but the county did not immediately respond to the request.