In a nutshell
Demographic firm Zonda provided a housing and student enrollment snapshot, based on data from the second quarter of 2024, during its quarterly update to LCISD’s board of trustees Oct. 15. In the firm's March update, the district was coined a “hypergrowth” district, meaning it has an elementary school zone that has between 150 to 300 new home starts annually.
LCISD data shows student enrollment is 46,841, surpassing Zonda’s updated prediction of 46,525 students enrolled for the 2024-25 school year.
Zooming in
Demographers predict 13 of 22 elementary schools will be nearing or over capacity by the district's 2029-30 school year, according to Zonda data. This accounts for the district's new schools opening in fall 2025.
Although the Houston area faces economic and inflationary pressures, the area's housing market is the second-most active in the U.S., Templeton said. This is despite the Houston area’s 4.8% unemployment rate in June being higher than Texas’ at 4.5% and the U.S. at 4.3%.
The housing growth adds new homes and students in LCISD’s boundaries. In the second quarter of 2024, LCISD averaged 5,088 new housing starts annually—the highest in the Houston region above Conroe ISD, according to Zonda data.
Furthermore, Zonda housing projections show:
- 90 subdivisions in LCISD are in active build-out, with 32 future subdivisions planned
- Almost 40,000 new homes, not including age-restricted communities, are expected to join LCISD’s boundaries
Additionally, the Federal Reserve cut its federal funds rate, the amount it charges banks, on Sept. 18. Local economists said they believe this could encourage more home construction, business expansions and stimulate consumer spending, Community Impact reported.
Templeton said there could also be further rate drops in the near future that could bolster the real estate market.
“Our chief economist with Zonda believes it is possible we could see another small drop, if not in December in the first quarter of 2025, that will hopefully be very helpful for the younger buyers,” he said.
What’s next
To accommodate this growth, LCISD officials said in late September they’re considering calling a bond election in 2025 that would fund new schools, land for future facilities, and safety and security projects, among other items. All of LCISD’s remaining projects from the $1.52 billion bond voters approved in November 2022 will be under construction by January, officials said.
Board President Zach Lambert said the board plans to form a Hypergrowth Oversight Committee made of two or three trustees to better plan for and get ahead of the incoming growth. This would provide an opportunity for trustees, city leaders and county commissioners to work together to address the area’s needs, he said.
"Just the fact that we have 11 neighborhoods with 200-plus homes being built right now, if we had the foresight back then to say, 'OK, we need a Hypergrowth Oversight Committee' 12 years ago, that would have helped out a lot," he said.
