Total student enrollment at Cy-Fair ISD will continue to increase each year, but the rate of growth is expected to slow. Total student enrollment at Cy-Fair ISD will continue to increase each year, but the rate of growth is expected to slow.[/caption]

Although Cy-Fair ISD has spent many years as one of the top growing school districts in the state of Texas, officials with Population and Survey Analysts say growth may be slowing.

In the 2016-17 school year, projections indicate that the CFISD kindergarten class will be 700 students smaller than the year before. This decrease in students will have ripple effects for the next twelve years as that class ages through the district.

“Although the district has increased at tremendous rates in large numbers, I believe 2005 was the last really large increase of almost 7,000 students added in one year,” PASA President Pat Guseman said at a June 22 CFISD work session. “This past year, there was a net of under 940 students added. The growth is basically slowing annually.”

The steep downturn comes from a decline in births in the area overall, Guseman said. She said it could also be attributed to the fact that new housing developments are coming at a higher price.

“Those younger homeowners are moving in less than they did historically,” Guseman said.

Roughly 72 percent of Cy-Fair is comprised of built out or completed neighborhoods where children are leaving homes for higher education and parents are becoming empty nesters, according to PASA research. Last year, 1,300 students who lived in these built-out areas left the school district.

Although 12 percent of the land in Cy-Fair is being developed or is planned to be developed, new home closings are on the decline, Guseman said. New home closings between March 2015 and March 2016 declined 8 percent compared to the previous year. In addition, homes that remain vacant within the CFISD boundaries are up 27 percent compared to this time last year.

Of the land under development, the majority of new homes will be in the Bridgeland, Towne Lake, Westfield Village, Canyon Lakes West and Mason Westgreen areas.

“A lot is happening on the west side of the district,” Guseman said. “This is very important growth tied with student growth.”

The largest multi-family developments for the foreseeable future are in Bridgeland, so Guseman said new construction must focus on this area in Cy-Fair.

Bridgeland High School—under construction along the Grand Parkway near where Bridgeland Creek Parkway and Mason Road will eventually run—will open in August 2017 to accommodate district growth.

Around 13 percent of the district remains undeveloped, with no current plans to build, officials said.