Cy-Fair ISD is expected to see a 1.1% enrollment dip from 118,057 to 116,757 students by 2034, according to a report from data consulting firm Population and Survey Analysts at the April 10 board work session.

PASA officials based their projections for the district on a variety of economic and social factors, including:
  • Job growth
  • Types of employment
  • Socioeconomic trends
  • Quality of life
  • Housing construction
  • Future land development
  • Charter and private school plans
  • Household sizes
  • Resident age distribution
The big picture

Although CFISD is expected to see a slight drop in enrollment, PASA President Stacey Tepera said the district is entering a new phase in its natural demographic cycle known as stabilization.

Tepera said the trend is driven by several factors, including limited land for new housing developments, more students choosing alternative education options and changing family patterns with fewer babies being born.

“There's not one simple answer to say what is happening to enrollment in this district,” Tepera said. “It's very complicated, and there are lots of factors that go into it.”


PASA projections show most of CFISD’s growth is focused in the western part of the district near the Grand Parkway, while student populations in many other areas continue to decline.

Around 33,120 new housing units are expected to be built over the next decade in neighborhoods such as Bridgeland, Marvida, Avalon at Cypress, Dunham Pointe and Grand Mason, among others. Still, PASA Demographer Angela Fritz said the district is about 91% built out as of 2025, which limits space for further housing development and future enrollment growth.
Quote of note

“Many of these declining forces have been happening for years. They were just masked by this incredible ... growth from new housing. And now that is tapering off, we’re beginning to see the impact of those declining forces more and more,” Tepera said.

What else?


About 7,000 students have transferred out of CFISD to pursue alternative education options such as private, charter and home schooling, Tepera said. That number is growing by 400-500 students annually and could increase by roughly 1,800 over the next five years, with eight new charter campuses expected to open in the area.

Those future charter campuses include:Tepera said the impact of pending voucher legislation on CFISD enrollment will depend on the specific details of the final policy.