The breakdown
John Robuck, managing advisor of BOK Financials, presented new bond financing options to the county based on preliminary growth estimates from Tax Assessor-Collector Tammy McRae.
McRae said based on preliminary property appraisal values as of April 30, the county has a projected growth rate of 13.7% as opposed to the original 5% presented by Robuck on April 9. However, McRae said the value would likely change as it did not take into account all appraisal protest results and homestead exemption backlog processing.
The data
Robuck presented new projections for the tax impact based on growth rates ranging from 5% to 9% for a $500 million bond issue. He also presented the bond issue amounts that would result in no tax rate impact for each growth scenario. Robuck said the county would only see a roughly a $0.01 to $0.015 per $100 valuation tax rate impact over three years with a $500 million bond. However, depending on the actual growth rate, he said the county could hold a smaller bond election with no tax rate impact in several scenarios:
- Option 1: 5% property tax growth, $165 million
- Option 2: 6% property tax growth, $185 million
- Option 3: 7% property tax growth, $210 million
- Option 4: 8% property tax growth, $250 million
- Option 5: 9% property tax growth, $300 million
Robuck said the best time to hold a bond election would be in November based on data from previous bond elections, which showed the majority of successful bond elections in recent years were held in November. Robuck also said the county’s last bond election in 2015 failed in May but passed in November.
Precinct 2 Commissioner Charlie Riley reiterated his stance that the presidential election in November would potentially drive voters away from downballot items, such as the bond.
A full list of projects has yet to be presented before the court; however, all commissioners stated they had a project list ready as soon as an amount for the bond is determined.
Quotes of note
“We’re always going to be competing with an election or a school bond,” Precinct 4 Commissioner Matt Gray said.
“You know what you can do and what you can’t do,” Robuck said. “We're ahead of the game. We're having a conversation in open court. So everybody knows we're talking about a bond election.”
“I think the more people that you get out there and voting you have more visibility, more transparency and get more voters,” Montgomery County Judge Mark Keough said. “I understand it's a long ballot, but if we go by our last election [in May], we lost there, and that's my concern because you've got various groups and whatnot pushing in different directions with minimal [voter] turnout.”
What’s next?
Commissioners voted to put the bond discussion back on the agenda for the first court meeting in June, scheduled for June 4, and they asked McRae to present the new growth projections with appraisal protest and exemption changes reflected.
