The district noticed the decline when its enrollment predictions fell short by 321 students in the 2018-19 school year—a year in which MISD expected record-breaking numbers.
However, this decline is expected to continue until the 2025-26 school year, according to consulting firm Templeton Demographics.
This should have minimal effect on future general fund budgets, district officials said.
The largest drop was seen among elementary and middle school students, according to the data.
Kindergarten enrollment has slowed statewide, not just in McKinney, said Rocky Gardener, director of school district consulting at Templeton.
Texas birth rates declined about six or seven years ago, he said. This is now being reflecting in primary school enrollment numbers.
Also, many homes in the district are pricier than “typical starter home[s],” Gardener said, which leads to fewer families with young children moving to the area.
By the 2026-27 school year, the population should catch back up, and enrollment should start increasing again, according to Templeton data.