Zonda Education is a demographer that helps project future enrollment for districts in the state. In the report looking at the past school year, the business showed that AISD enrollment increased by 14.5% from the 2021-22 to 2022-23 school years.
From 2017-18 to 2022-23, the district has seen an increase of 2,250 students or 82.8%, according to Zonda consultant Hudson Huff.
The details
Huff noted the district growth should be expected to continue with 31 different subdivisions under construction in the boundaries, with another 15 subdivisions in the various stages of planning. Huff said 253 lots were finished in the second quarter of 2023—the highest mark dating back to 2017. Huff stated 258 construction projects were started the second quarter of this year.
He listed some notable construction areas:
- 287 future lots are planned for Harvest in Northlake
- 31 future lots at Hawthorne Estates in Northlake
- 97 vacant lots in Canyon Falls in Northlake
- 480 future lots at Ridge at Northlake
- 51 vacant lots, 18 under construction at Glenwood Manor in Argyle
- 191 multifamily under construction for rental homes and 250 more planned at BB Living Harvest in Northlake
- 27 future lots, 20 under construction at Vintage TH in Argyle
- 119 future lots in Phase 1 of Vintage Village in Denton
Based on the future numbers, Zonda expects AISD to continue to grow, but not at the double-digit pace of the past two years of 14.5% in 2022-23 and 14.3% in 2021-22. Projection shows an 8.3% increase during the 2023-24 school year.
The district has 5,378 students based on the October count with 412 new students. That is a drop compared to the 628 new students last school year.
Projections for the 2033-34 school year shows the district will exceed 10,000 students. In the district’s 10-year strategic plan, the plan is to open a new high school when the enrollment for grades 9-12 reaches 2,700 students. The new high school would be constructed on property located on US 377, according to Zonda's presentation.
Based on enrollment projections from Zonda, that would open in 2031-32.
Quote of note
“Just based off the current trend now, things will continue to move forward,” Huff said. “You’re still having development. You’re not going to have a significant drop in this huge surge.”
