ERCOT forecasts record electric demand this summer amid data center boom; says grid will hold up

Last summer, ERCOT saw about 83.7 gigawatts of demand due to generally mild temperatures. At least 1.7 gigawatts of large-load projects are expected to be added to the grid by September, according to agency documents.

However, ERCOT officials said a grid emergency or blackout is unlikely this summer. This is due in part to nearly 11 gigawatts of power capacity that were added to the grid in the last few months.

“As we continue to see load growth coming on, that profile and picture obviously can evolve, and we expect it to evolve,” ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas said June 2. “But what we have published at this point is still showing fairly adequate capacity and a low likelihood of emergency conditions going into June and July.”

There is a 0.09% chance of a grid emergency this June and a 0.21% chance of an emergency in July, ERCOT found in recent reports analyzing grid risks. The probability of blackouts during those months is even lower.

Texans last experienced a grid emergency in September 2023 as electric reserves dropped during a record heat wave, Community Impact reported. Agency records show that officials did not require rotating power outages during that emergency, as they did during 2021’s Winter Storm Uri.

Texans can sign up to receive notifications about changes in grid conditions at www.ercot.com/txans and register for ERCOT’s emergency alerts here.

How it works

Texas leads the nation in solar power capacity, data shows. Investments in solar power have helped ERCOT power homes and businesses during the hottest parts of the day, state officials previously said.

Since last summer, nearly 5 gigawatts of battery storage capacity, about 4 gigawatts of solar power and 1.5 gigawatts of natural gas have come online.

On hot summer days, ERCOT’s highest-risk periods occur between 8-9 p.m., when less solar energy is available. ERCOT typically relies on natural gas and batteries to power the grid during this time, Community Impact previously reported.

The weather outlook

2023 was Texas’ second-hottest summer on record, and temperatures could come close this year, ERCOT projected. How hot it ultimately gets depends on rain patterns after a wet spring season, ERCOT vice president Dan Woodfin said June 2.

“The weather profile that we're likely to see over the next few months is a little more uncertain than usual,” Woodfin told ERCOT board members. “Our meteorologists believe we're probably looking at close to normal temperatures and rainfall during this period. [This summer] could be as hot as 2023, but that will depend on how long this rainy period lasts.”

Drought conditions could worsen in some areas of Texas, ERCOT officials said. As of May 26, portions of Central and North Texas were not experiencing a drought, while conditions in other parts of the state ranged from “abnormally dry” in Montgomery County to “exceptional drought” in the Panhandle, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Something to note

ERCOT leaders have also pointed to Senate Bill 6, a 2025 state law, as a tool to prevent a grid emergency in extremely hot or cold conditions. The law directs large electric consumers, including data centers, to supply backup power when connecting to the Texas grid and switch to those reserves during emergencies.

If ERCOT anticipates tight grid conditions this summer, the grid operator can notify large facilities that they must reduce their power consumption within 30 minutes, officials said June 2.

“ERCOT will issue public notices if the grid conditions are tightening, that [certain] facilities may need to take action,” Vegas said. “If the conditions deteriorate or do not improve, then we would be in a position to instruct the facility owners to act.”

During last year’s legislative session, lawmakers said SB 6 was important to ensure the state better handles grid emergencies and does not have a repeat of Winter Storm Uri, the February 2021 storm that killed nearly 250 people and knocked out power for millions.

“During Uri, no one died at the office building, and no one died at the manufacturing plant,” state Sen. Phil King, a Weatherford Republican who authored SB 6, said in February 2025. “They all froze to death in their homes in 2021, and that will never happen again. It cannot.”