Overall, this winter will likely be warmer than normal, but Texas is on track for “something like a Uri this winter,” said Chris Coleman, the lead meteorologist for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. In February 2021, Winter Storm Uri brought days of below-freezing temperatures to Texas, knocking out power for millions of people and leading to nearly 250 deaths.
“There is more support than average for this winter to have some extreme cold,” Coleman said in a presentation to ERCOT’s board of directors. “This is like a tornado watch—it doesn’t mean a tornado is going to happen, but means the conditions are there. It’s the same idea for cold weather extremes.”
What you need to know
Extreme cold events are becoming more common in Texas, despite warmer temperatures during the winter and throughout the year, Coleman said.
From 1991-2016, just three winter storms pushed temperatures below 14 degrees Fahrenheit in Dallas, below 19 degrees in Austin and below 21 degrees in Houston, Coleman said. Since 2016, temperatures have dropped that low five times.
“You can have a warm winter in Texas and have a cold extreme, and that's becoming more frequent,” Coleman said. “Five of the last eight winters, we've had temperatures that met those thresholds.”
Ocean temperatures, atmospheric patterns and other weather indicators mimic conditions from winter 2020-21, according to Coleman’s forecast.
Changes have been made to harden power plants and transmission facilities against extreme weather, but outages are still possible during a severe winter storm. ERCOT’s models show a nearly 50% chance of rotating power outages in January if Texas experiences weather similar to the December 2022 freeze.
There is almost an 80% chance of outages if a more aggressive storm like Uri hits Texas this January, although energy experts say blackouts would not last multiple days, as they did in 2021. The models are based on historical events and are “not a forecast,” ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas emphasized Dec. 3.
“If we had another Winter Storm Uri, we wouldn’t be out of the woods,” said Austin-based energy consultant Doug Lewin. “We would have some outages. I just don’t think they’d last as long or affect as many people.”
Zooming in
Legislation passed in 2021 required energy providers to “weatherize” their facilities to withstand extremely hot or cold temperatures after some power plants shut down during Winter Storm Uri. ERCOT has inspected 2,892 weatherized facilities since December 2021, Vegas said.
The weatherization requirements have “markedly changed the risk profile of the ERCOT grid, particularly during the winter season,” Vegas said.
He added that outages may also be caused by mechanical failures or other local issues. ERCOT does not own any power plants or operate power lines, which are the responsibility of local utility companies.
“We're like the air traffic controller of the electric grid. We operate the resources and make sure that the supply is always matching the demand,” Vegas told Community Impact in May. “So when a storm comes through like that, it's typically the transmission [and] distribution utility company who's responsible for making sure that their infrastructure is as ready as possible to meet those impacts.”
Over 10,000 megawatts of generation capacity have been added to Texas’ power grid since March, which officials say will help reduce the likelihood of future outages. This includes 5,155 megawatts of solar generation resources and 3,693 megawatts of electric storage capacity, according to Vegas’ presentation Dec. 3.
“We have far more power available this winter than we’ve had any winter ever before, and that power is far more reliable than it’s ever been,” Gov. Greg Abbott said at a Dec. 3 news conference on emergency preparedness. “We’re working nonstop to make sure that the power stays on so that no one will suffer any type of disaster, regardless of what type of winter storm hits.”
Put in perspective
In the colder months, demand for electricity spikes when people get up in the morning and return home in the evening. Less solar and wind power are available during these “higher-risk” periods, Vegas said, which can cause tight grid conditions.
During periods of high demand with low wind and solar capacity, ERCOT may direct large industrial customers to reduce their power consumption or ask Texans to voluntarily reduce their energy use for a few hours.
Officials asked residents to conserve electricity twice during a January 2024 arctic blast. The grid operator did not issue any conservation requests this summer.
According to ERCOT’s models, an extreme winter storm resembling Uri could create up to 96,000 megawatts of electric demand, shattering the current demand record of 85,508 megawatts, which was set August 2023.
“That’s an eye-popping number, and it’s going to be incredibly difficult to serve that much load,” Lewin said.
Lewin said officials and state lawmakers could minimize such risks by prioritizing energy efficiency and building power plants for a wider variety of energy sources. He said the Public Utility Commission of Texas, which oversees ERCOT and regulates local utilities, has spent $5 billion to support new natural gas plants, which take years to complete. Regulators could instead invest in backup power programs and smaller self-sufficient energy systems, known as microgrids, Lewin said.
“Microgrids can be deployed very quickly and the legislature said they wanted billions spent on it, but the PUC so far has spent nothing on it,” Lewin said.
Lawmakers set aside $1.8 billion in grants for microgrids in Senate Bill 2627, a 2023 law that also incentivized the development of “dispatchable” generation, like natural gas and coal plants.
The microgrid grants were “specifically designed to be for hospitals, nursing homes, police stations, fire departments,” Lewin said.
“Just to think that we might have more outages this winter, and again, we’re gonna have nursing homes and hospitals scrambling to keep up with their power needs instead of having reliable on-site power... is very frustrating,” he said.
