Despite an influx of charter schools and homeschooled students in the area, Pflugerville ISD enrollment is forecasted to increase by nearly 4,000 students by the 2033-24 school year, as more single-family and multi-family housing units are completed.

Demographer Bob Templeton of Zonda Education presented the board of trustees with the district’s demographic and housing market data during its regular boarding meeting May 2.

Zooming in

Zonda data shows that PfISD’s enrollment was 25,562 students for the 2023-24 school year. Per Templeton’s projections, that number will increase by nearly 1,500 by 2028-29, and by nearly 2,500 by 2033-34.

According to Templeton, Texas’ total population grew over 470,000 people in 2022-23—a record-breaking year for the state. However, Texas had one of the lowest student-enrollment growth years with only 12,000 new students added to the public school system compared to last year’s 91,000.

By comparison, charter school enrollment grew by over 18,000 students, Templeton said. In the Austin area, there are:

• More than 100 charter school campuses
• 42,000 students enrolled in charter schools in 2023-24, up 2,700 students from last year
• 4 new campuses that opened in 2023-24 with 7 more to open in 2024-25

Templeton noted that many of the newly opened or upcoming charter schools are in areas like Georgetown, Leander and Round Rock, which could help PfISD’s enrollment.

“Because the charter pull is going to be greater to the north, I think we may have seen the wave, hopefully, pass us,” Templeton said.

While charter schools are still pulling students out of public schools, homeschooling is also contributing to lower enrollment, he said.

“[Enrollment] should have been growing in that 30,000-60,000 student range like we have grown historically,” Templeton said. “The reality is we’re seeing more and more students that are opting for the homeschool choice. ... Five to ten years ago, homeschool was such a small amount. That number is growing and it is maintaining momentum.”

Another detail

The local housing market also comes into play with district enrollment, Templeton said. Within PfISD, there are:

• About 400 homes in inventory and nearly 650 additional lots to build on
• More than 2,100 lots within 7 subdivisions with groundwork underway
• More than 6,800 multi-family units under construction and over 6,100 future units in various stages of planning

Zonda data also shows that Dessau, Mott and Pflugerville Elementary zones are each building over 100 homes per year, and there are over 4,600 future lots in the Carpenter Elementary zone.

“I’m going to call it the speed bump of the higher interest rates, what’s happened with charters [and] the charter expansion—those things have really hampered our enrollment growth,” Templeton said. “It’s because of those factors, when the reality is our population is growing; it's just a matter of working out the interest rate challenges for those young buyers and then getting through the charter wave.”

What to expect

Templeton said the district can still expect to add 200 to 300 students as multiple apartment complexes are set to come online within the next year or so.

“That’s why I feel really good when we get to the [enrollment] projections,” Templeton said. “I think you’re going to exceed my projections for the first time in the last couple of years.”