Major takeaways
According to Unlock MLS' year-to-date data on single-family homes:
- Homes spent 73 days on the market on average, nine days longer than 2024 YTD
- Total sales were down 5% from 2024 with 26,455 homes sold
- Median sale prices were down 1% from 2024 at $438,532
- Average lease prices were $1,369
- 86.6% of units were leased
- 19,533 units were under construction with 58,995 proposed
"Consumer sentiment is kind of like maybe we're in a recession, even though the economy isn't," O'Grady said.
As the year closes out, stubborn inflation is affecting the market along with a slowed employment growth, O'Grady said. The MSA is seeing more service jobs but fewer professional business service jobs.
"It's troubling from a home ownership perspective because we're creating a lot of lower-wage jobs, not a lot of necessarily higher-wage jobs," O'Grady said.
Austin still remains one of the strongest markets, O'Grady said, as Austin's unemployment rates remain below the average for both Texas and the United States.
What else?
Median home prices in the MSA remain some of the most highest in Texas.
"I think part of that is the capital of Texas thing, and part of that is the constraints we've got on our geography," O'Grady said.
Still, elevated home prices and the stall in employment growth isn't keeping people from wanting to move to Austin, O'Grady said.
Data shared from realtor.com showed that in Q3 2025, the MSA saw nearly 28% of searches coming from Dallas-Fort Worth, followed by Chicago, San Antonio and Houston with over 5% of searches each.
Looking ahead
While there is still uncertainty with the Federal Reserve and impacts of the October government shutdown, home affordability is still likely to improve, O'Grady said.
"It feels a little painful to lower the price on the home you've got listed, but long term, we need [prices] to come down so more people can afford to buy a home," O'Grady said.
Unlock MLS' projections for YTD 2026 include:
- Between 30,000-32,000 closed sales
- Between 10,000-12,000 active listings
- Upward of 5 months of inventory
- Median sales prices of $410,000-$425,000
"People won't buy a home if they don't think they're going to have a job," O'Grady said. "Getting that [unemployment] data and understanding what that data is telling us can help because it will provide at least some level of certainty."
The MSA’s real estate market is also likely to continue seeing forward movement due to federal incentives for semiconductor and artificial intelligence manufacturing, the Samsung facility in Hutto, and Austin-Bergstrom International Airport’s expansion.
“Talent migration is likely to rebound,” O’Grady said. “People still want to live here. ... I think tech will reaccelerate, [and] it's going to look a little different, but long term, I think we're positioned really well, and we're ready to go into a new chapter of innovation hiring is where we're going to go."
