More Texans are voting early than in recent primaries, election data shows

What’s happening

As of Feb. 24, over 687,000 Democratic voters had cast early ballots in person or by mail, according to data from counties and the secretary of state’s office. That is 3.68% of all registered voters and more than twice the number of Democratic primary voters at the same point in the 2022 midterm election cycle.

Democratic turnout is also outpacing that of the 2024 presidential primary, when approximately 356,000 Democrats voted early, per state data.

“[Democratic] turnout is ... 50%-60% higher than that of any election in the last four cycles. Democrats are definitely having a moment here in Texas,” Republican data analyst Ross Hunt, who leads Texas-based Hunt Research, told Community Impact.

Over 610,000 Republican voters, or 3.27% of all registered Texans, had voted early as of Feb. 24, trailing behind the nearly 735,000 early Republican votes at this point in the 2024 primary and exceeding the party’s roughly 463,000 votes at the same point in 2022.

Statewide, nearly 1.3 million Texans, or about 7% of the state’s 18.7 million registered voters, cast early ballots through Feb. 24, the eighth day of the 11-day early voting period. This is up from about 1 million early votes at the same point in 2024 and about 754,000 early votes in 2022, according to the secretary of state.

How we got here

Hunt said part of the reason for rising voter turnout is that voting is a “habit-forming activity.”

“The action of going into a polling place is very powerful, and it hardwires people in a way to make them much more likely to vote,” Hunt said. “Factors like enthusiasm, national mood, the way the partisanship of the country is swinging—all these things are very important, but one of the things that drives overall turnout in these elections is just simply [initial] participation.”

Hunt added that once someone votes for the first time, studies show there is about a 25% likelihood of them voting in a future primary election and a 60%-90% chance that they vote in the next midterm or general election.

According to Derek Ryan, a GOP consultant who runs Ryan Data & Research:

• Nearly 11% of people who voted in Texas’ Republican primary through Feb. 22 previously had only voted in November elections.
• 1% of Republican primary voters had no primary or general election history.
• Over 23% of Democratic primary voters had previously only voted in November.
• About 3% of Democratic primary voters had no primary or general election records.

More context

Texas’ increased early voting turnout comes during a midterm election cycle with several competitive and high-profile races at the top of the ticket. Registered voters will choose their political parties’ nominees for the U.S. Senate, seven state offices, 10 state judicial seats, 38 congressional seats, nearly all state legislative seats and over half of the State Board of Education.

“Simply put, competition drives turnout,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, who teaches political science at the University of Houston. “The 2026 primary has become a nationalized, high-visibility race, ... and both parties have competitive races.”

Eight Republicans and three Democrats are running in their respective primaries for U.S. Senate. In either race, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the votes, runoff elections will be held between the two top vote-getters May 26.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is running in the Republican Senate primary, leaving his office open. Four Republicans and three Democrats are vying for their parties’ nominations to replace Paxton as the state’s top lawyer.

The state comptroller’s office is also open after former comptroller Glenn Hegar stepped down in July to lead the Texas A&M University System. Former state Sen. Kelly Hancock currently serves as acting state comptroller and is among four Republican primary candidates, while three Democrats are running for the state office.

“There's a lot of political money in Texas and a lot of open offices,” Hunt said. “Most of the turnout, though, will be driven by the big spending, and also the excitement for the Senate campaigns and for some of the other statewide campaigns that are spending large amounts of money.”

Did you know?

Republicans currently occupy all 18 statewide offices on the ballot. No Democrat or third-party candidate has won a statewide office in Texas since 1994, election records show.

Democratic candidates filed for every state-level seat on this year’s primary ballot, the Texas Democratic Party announced in December. This includes statewide offices, legislative seats, congressional seats, state courts and the SBOE.

Party leaders noted this is “the first time in modern Texas history” that a political party is running candidates for all state offices.

Rottinghaus told Community Impact that running candidates down the ballot creates “more chances for competitive contests.”

“Having more candidates means the potential for voters to have more choices, and more choices and more competition can drive turnout,” he said. “A lot of things are happening all at once—it's good because Texas turnout is typically really low. That turnout increase is a good thing for democracy and for both parties and their ability to try to win elections.”

Hunt said there is “some certainty” that voter enthusiasm will extend to the November midterm election.

“If you get a voter to turnout in the primary elections, that voter then becomes significantly more likely, and reliably more likely, to vote in November,” Hunt told Community Impact. “From that perspective, Democrats who are looking at the prospects for a potential win, either statewide or wins down ballot in the fall, [are] bolstered significantly by this high Democratic primary turnout.”