City prepares for build-out with updated plan

The development cycle in a growing city is like a line of dominoes: a chain reaction begins with a single event. For instance, building more housing yields more people, more people yield more development and all of that yields more infrastructure. The next domino in the line may have fallen with news from Brinkmann Ranch. Baxter Brinkmann, owner of one of the largest undeveloped plots of land left in Frisco, sold a small portion of his 3,300-acre ranch property for a residential development. The future 704-home, gated community will sit on about 182 acres of land. This news could spur Frisco's two other large private landowners—the Gartner family and Bert Fields Jr., who recently died—to also start selling off portions of their properties, said Brad Holden, a local real estate broker and President of Holden New Homes. The three major landowners own about 16 percent of Frisco's total land and extraterritorial jurisdiction, totalling more than 7,000 acres. Most of this land is more valuable than other parcels in Frisco because they are culminated into large, continuous tracts of land, said Jeff Cheney, broker associate for The Cheney Group and city councilman. "Anytime you have a continuous piece of property of that magnitude, it makes the entire property more valuable because the opportunities are endless with what you can do with it," he said, saying the city can plan for major projects on large tracts of land. In Frisco's 2006 Comprehensive Plan, Brinkmann's property was outlined for suburban neighborhoods. The current draft comprehensive plan for 2015 shows his property planned for an urban center, which would include major corporations and high-density housing. The city's latest draft comprehensive plan update—which will update the 2006 Comprehensive Plan and is expected to be completed this spring—projects Frisco's population reaching 373,360 people at build-out. That number is calculated for planning purposes, and city planners do not know if or when Frisco will reach that population, said John Lettelleir, Frisco director of development services. How fast Frisco reaches that build-out population depends on when these landowners decide to sell their property, Lettelleir said. How quickly schools need to be built also hinges on when the landowners decide to develop on their properties, especially if the development will be residential, said Richard Wilkinson, deputy superintendent of business services for Frisco ISD. Many of the suburban neighborhoods slotted in the 2006 Comprehensive Plan have been swapped out for urban centers or business parks in the 2015 plan, though a large portion of Frisco's land is still planned for single-family residences. Planning for a fast-growing city such as Frisco can prove challenging. But planners in the city and school district have said maintaining a vision and strong leadership has helped Frisco be successful in the past and will help Frisco in the years ahead.

Frisco's housing market

Part of the reason for the city's growth is because of Frisco's geographic location in relation to the rest of the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area, said Ted Wilson, principal for Residential Strategies Inc. Growth in Dallas spread northward to Plano and other cities, especially along Preston Road, Wilson said. Frisco was "the next rung on the ladder," he said. However, one thing Frisco has done to set itself apart in the housing market is provide high-quality housing to its residents, Wilson said. "Frisco has really done a superb job, probably better than most cities in recent history that have been fast-growth cities, of really managing their growth and putting in place a lot of restrictions and guidelines for development that have resulted in a really high-quality subdivision and quality of house," he said. Lettelleir said these development restrictions have elevated the land prices in Frisco, which led to a smaller pool of developers "that can pay the price of admission to play in Frisco." Homebuilders understand they are making an investment by choosing to come to Frisco, he said. "They understand what the direction of the city is and the city's vision, and they participate in it," he said. However, the city's future growth is about more than just new construction. Lettelleir said the city also works with homeowners associations to discuss creative solutions for maintaining aging neighborhoods. "When you look at older neighborhoods, it always comes down to the people that live there," he said. "Are they committed to the neighborhood?" Wilson said the future residential market in Frisco is constrained by the amount of land left to develop and will depend on when the major holdouts among the landowners come into play. Cheney said land prices will possibly increase as undeveloped land becomes more scarce in the city. As Frisco runs out of room for single-family housing developments toward build-out, it is likely that the city will see more high-density housing, Wilson said. This type of housing could be more affordable and bring "lifestyle living" to the city, he said. "So, it's not just suburban sprawl," Wilson said. "It's more higher density and an urban feel in a suburban location."

School district planning

Although the city could turn to higher-density development as it runs out of room for housing, Frisco ISD has plans to maintain a small-schools philosophy, Wilkinson said. This small-schools philosophy means the district caps enrollment for elementary, middle and high schools to keep the student-to-teacher ratio low. For instance, the capacity for a Frisco elementary school is 760 students. The school district's enrollment is increasing as quickly as Frisco's population; FISD enrolled its 50,000th student this year. FISD's enrollment is typically about 22 percent of the city's population, Wilkinson said, which means the school district's enrollment at the latest build-out projection would equal more than 82,000 students. Since 1997, FISD has averaged three new schools built each year, Wilkinson said. FISD has been able to work around the undeveloped land in the past, Wilkinson said, but the district remains in contact with those major landowners in case a development could warrant the need for a new school. "They have already shown tremendous cooperation in making sure that we're included or making sure that our concern about long-term needs is considered," he said. City employees also contact the school district if a developer considers building a new community, he said. Strong district leadership and community support through bond elections has helped the school district keep up with the growth for the past 20 years, Wilkinson said. For now, the plan is to continue the small-schools concept, Wilkinson said. But as the city nears build-out, it becomes more difficult for FISD to find land plots to build new schools, he said. The district may look at expanding some schools to accommodate higher enrollment, Wilkinson said. The district has already worked to renovate its first six high schools—which were originally built to accommodate 1,800 students—so they could house 2,100. Regardless of how the city develops, FISD working closely with the city and community will be key to Frisco's success as it grows, Wilkinson said. "If the community hadn't been supportive as far as the small-schools philosophy or the bond program, we wouldn't have been able to keep up," he said.