At a Jan. 15 board of trustees meeting, Population and Survey Analysts President Stacey Tepera provided a demographic update to assist LTISD with short-term staffing and planning for next school year. Since the release of LTISD’s 2024 demographic report, PASA has compared the district’s current enrollment to prior projections and investigated new housing developments, Tepera said.
Zooming out
LTISD has experienced significant growth over the past decade, gaining an additional 2,177 students since 2014, Tepera said. This growth has tapered over the last five years amid the COVID-19 pandemic, rising housing costs and the district nearing build-out, she said.
In October, LTISD’s enrollment of 11,010 students was 305 students lower than PASA’s previous enrollment projections. This comes as the district is enrolling a smaller population of elementary students, Tepera said.
Fewer students are living in newly-constructed homes as housing prices increase, and students moving into the district are often older, she said.
By 2033, LTISD is expected to have 12,686 students, which is around 1,000 fewer students than last year’s projections for 2033.
Zooming in
Bee Cave and Rough Hollow elementaries are expected to see the most enrollment growth over the next nine years, while Lake Point and Lake Travis elementaries are projected to grow the least.
Bee Cave Middle School is projected to have nearly 1,000 students by 2033. Meanwhile, Hudson Bend Middle School’s enrollment is expected to decline.
Next school year, Lake Travis High School’s enrollment is projected to barely exceed its capacity of 3,500 students. Although PASA’s high school enrollment projections have declined, the change is not expected to affect the opening of High School No. 2, Tepera said.
Amid lower enrollment projections, LTISD announced in November that it will push the opening of High School No. 2 from 2027 to 2028 and delay the opening of Elementary School No. 8.
What else?
Over the next nine years, 8,737 new housing occupancies are expected to be built in the district, according to the presentation. Of these developments, 55% will be single-family homes, 36.1% will be multifamily units and 8.9% will be age-restricted housing.
New developments coming to the area include Travis Club, Sweetwater Multi-Family, The Pearl and RGK Ranch.
Travis County purchased RGK Ranch for parkland after receiving voter-approval in a 2023 bond election. The conservancy will result in 1,400 housing units not being built in the district, Tepera said.
Something to note
PASA has observed a sentiment against traditional schooling across the state, which may have impacted LTISD’s enrollment growth, Tepera said.
“We have all sorts of anecdotal suggestions of homeschooling increasing,” Tepera said.
In the 2025 legislative session, state lawmakers could pass a school voucher program known as educational savings accounts, which would award families public dollars to pay for private school tuition, Tepera said.
Place 4 board member John Aoueille asked Tepera about the potential impact of vouchers on LTISD’s enrollment. PASA is studying the impact of voucher programs in other states to see how they might affect Texas, Tepera said.
Suburban or urban districts near more private schools or areas with higher socioeconomic statuses are most likely to be affected by vouchers, Tepera said. If a voucher program were to pass, private schools may need time to expand and accommodate additional students, she said.
