The data comes from the newly released 2019 demographic study from Templeton Demographics, a company EISD commissioned to study current trends within the district.
Some figures of note include the fact that while the area encompassed by EISD, though almost totally built out, is adding new homes, its student enrollment is projected to drop over the next decade.
Jeremy Tremble, EISD’s chief operations officer, said the demographic study offers the district one source of reliable data that provides valuable insights about its future, where specific resources may need to be allocated and any other need for additional planning.
“While Eanes ISD has seen a few new housing developments introduced over the last year, the projections from Templeton Demographics show enrollment remaining relatively flat during the next five to 10 years,” Trimble said. “Even with a stable overall population in Eanes ISD, we use this demographic information to monitor campus-level enrollment shifts and grade-level trends, one of which is the continued low projection of incoming kindergarten students.”
For the 2019-20 school year, the study estimates Eanes ISD will enroll 8,218 total students for grades K-12. By the 2028-29 school year, the district is expected to drop almost 400 enrolled students to tap out at 7,830, constituting a 4.72% drop.
Deputy Superintendent Jeff Arnett said EISD is different from most districts in Central Texas because it is landlocked, and there is not geographic room for the residential population to increase.
“Our resident population is aging, and we’re not yet seeing a regreening effect where older residents are selling their homes and younger residents with children are moving in,” Arnett said. “So, our resident population is projected to decline in number over the next decade, whereas other districts around us are still experiencing significant growth, and they are seeing an increase in their student population.”
Another factor contributing to a lack of resident growth is the average cost of a home within EISD, which is now almost $1 million, Arnett said, adding younger families with children are not typically able to afford a home at that price.
“So, we’re not seeing families move in, particularly with younger children, which is why the 10-year forecast shows our population gradually declining from the bottom up, meaning we’re first observing that decrease in our student enrollment occur in our primary grades,” he said. “We don’t typically see any potential growth in our population until the intermediate grades or later.”
Editor’s note: The data represented in this story relate solely to the area encapsulated within Eanes ISD. Community Impact Newspaper reported on a similar study pertaining to Lake Travis ISD in the April 2019 edition.