The Lake Travis ISD board of trustees reviewed a demographics study conducted by Population and Survey Analysts at a Feb. 21 meeting.

PASA expects 14,883 housing units will be built in the district by 2026. Using a moderate-growth scenario, PASA Data Manager Stacey Tepera said it expects LTISD to add 15,790 students by the 2026-27 school year.

“It’s not just taking a birth rate and multiplying it; [the study] is much more advanced,” Superintendent Brad Lancaster said. “What I can say is 10 years ago they projected we would add 9,200 kids [by 2016-17], and we’re 600 kids over that projection. This is their conservative estimate.”

PASA identified Bee Cave, Serene Hills and West Cypress Hills elementary schools; Lake Travis Middle School; and Lake Travis High School as campuses that are expected to exceed their maximum capacities by the 2023-24 school year.

LTISD is anticipated to need a seventh elementary school by 2020 to give relief to Serene Hills ES and West Cypress Hills ES, Tepera said. Data showed an eighth elementary school to relieve Bee Cave ES should be built by 2023, she said.

PASA projected Lake Travis MS could be over its maximum capacity by fall 2018, with 1,400 new students projected to be zoned for the school by 2026, Tepera said.

“At the middle school level, the high-growth area in the district corresponds almost exactly with attendance zoning for Lake Travis Middle School,” Tepera said. “As soon as [the district] can pass a bond and build a middle school, it can be utilized to relieve overcrowding.”

Lancaster said the district’s bond advisory committee is scheduled to present recommendations for a new elementary school and middle school to the board of trustees in May. If the board approves the bond recommendations, a bond election would be in November, he said.

“The good news is that elementary school [No. 7] would be perfectly situated to open in 2020, just when the top capacity starts,” Lancaster said. “The difficulty is the middle school would also open in 2020, and I don’t know if we would have enough portables to cover 1,900 kids [at Lake Travis MS]. This is an issue we’ll have to deal with even if we call this bond election and assume it passes.”

Lake Travis HS is expected to exceed capacity by 2023, with an anticipated 4,289 students, the PASA report states.

“It’s time to start thinking about adding additional capacity at the high school level,” Tepera said. “That’s a difficult discussion because considering a potential second high school is something new to the community.”