As of November, the district is projected to have 17,364 students by the 2034-35 school year—a decrease of around 2,500 students from the district’s last demographic update in August. A slowing of the housing market alongside an increase in students attending microschools and private schools could impact GISD’s enrollment growth, Zonda Demographics Vice President Bob Templeton said at a Nov. 17 board meeting.
“The outlook is still good,” Templeton said. “It’s just right now, we have some headwinds with the high costs [and] higher interest rates, and consumer confidence is low.”
The projections
The district’s current enrollment of 14,061 students aligns with previous projections for his fall, Templeton said.
Zonda Demographics provided the district with potential low, mid and high enrollment scenarios to prepare for the next 10 years. The district is projected to experience conservative growth next year, Templeton said. GISD will likely see a couple years of low enrollment growth that could eventually approach the mid growth projections, he said.
If the housing market continues to slow alongside an increase in private school and homeschool enrollment, GISD's growth may be limited to 16,133 students by the 2035-36 school year, he said. Enrollment may grow to 17,845 students by 2035 if economic conditions and housing yields remain stable, and the impact from homeschooling and private schools is minimal, according to Zonda Demographics documents.
“It’s still not a matter of if those numbers are going to happen,” Templeton said about projected enrollment growth. “It's just a matter of when. It’s just a matter of do these conditions slow it down enough to delay that.”
Something to note
Zonda Demographics works with around 80 school districts, the majority of which are projecting low enrollment, Templeton said. Many districts are already feeling the effects of families choosing alternative education options, he said.
State lawmakers approved allocating $1 billion to create an education savings account program during the 2025 legislative session. Beginning in the 2026-27 school year, most participating families will receive about $10,330 per student for private school tuition and other expenses, while homeschool students will receive up to $2,000 annually, according to previous Community Impact reporting. Students with disabilities will qualify for up to $30,000 per year.
Although the educational savings account program has not yet begun, “the mindset of choice is already well underway,” Templeton said.
Templeton said he expects that the district will be most impacted by families opting to homeschool their children though microschools and co-ops. Microschooling options have expanded quickly in recent years with the help of education foundations like Vela and have often attracted families of elementary students, he said.
“I think it is going to be the biggest impact on enrollment next year,” Templeton said about microschools. “[It] is not private, because private [schools] have limited capacity.”
The background
The number of new homes coming on the market in the Austin region has declined dramatically compared to San Antonio, Dallas and Houston, Templeton said. In the Austin and San Marcos area, there were 13,744 new homes sold over the last year, which is a decrease of 25.4%, according to Zonda Demographics data.
There have been 1,297 new homes sold in GISD so far this year. The Wolf Ranch Elementary attendance zone has seen the most new home sales followed by Ford Elementary and San Gabriel Elementary.
The district has 49 subdivisions actively building with around 400 homes under construction and 3,900 lots that are ready to be built on. GISD currently has 27 potential future subdivisions totalling around 27,600 single-family lots. Over 2,300 lots in 16 subdivisions have groundwork underway.
Lakeside Estates, a new 722-acre municipal utility district, will bring 1,312 single-family lots to the district. Construction on the development, including a hotel and resort, is expected to begin in early 2026, Templeton said.
The Patterson Ranch subdivision will include nearly 400 single-family lots and is planning to welcome its first residents this fall, he said.
