The student population for Austin ISD is projected to decline by 6,140 over the next 10 years, or a 7.4 percent decrease from the 2015-16 school year, according to the district’s annual demographics report released Jan. 11, created in collaboration with Davis Demographics & Planning. A decrease of single family housing construction, paired with the increase of multifamily housing, or apartment, condominium and townhome, construction, was cited as a cause for the population decrease, according to the study. The ongoing trend of lower birth rates is expected to continue as well, the study shows. The student population may also be hindered by the rise of property values and rental rates, particularly in Central Austin, according to the study. Schools including Doss, Hill and Menchaca elementary schools are expected to be over capacity, as AISD predicts that Northwest, far south and Southeast Austin, in contrast to Central Austin, will experience student population growth due to the affordability of homes in those areas, according to the study. “We have become a much more divided district because of the cost of housing in Central and East Austin,” said Beth Wilson, AISD assistant director for planning services. “Never in my wildest dreams I would’ve said Northwest Austin is a good value.” Wilson said "a vast majority" of the population decease is attributed to housing affordability. Trustee Jayme Mathias asked staff what the strategy will be, adding that AISD is no longer the fifth largest school district in Texas. Superintendent Paul Cruz noted the board recently approved a marketing plan that conveys the successes of AISD in different languages, as well as a transfer policy change that allows out-of-district students to transfer. “We are not relying on hope alone,” trustee Gina Hinojosa said. “It is just taking longer than we’ve liked to achieve results.” The previous annual report, which was presented to the board Jan. 12, 2015, projected a 5.8 percent decline by the 2024-2025 school year.