Area's current needs not severe, but industry looks to future

Although Travis and Williamson counties have largely managed to escape the nursing shortage that has gripped the state and nation for several years, experts say keeping students in the field will be important to meeting future demands.

The national demand for nurses, which is expected to rise because of an aging population and wider access to health care, is reflected in government projections for the nursing industry. The U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics predicted in 2012 that the economy would add 526,800 registered nursing jobs nationwide—a 19 percent increase—by 2022.

Between 2007 and 2013 the number of registered nurses in Williamson County rose by 95 percent, far outpacing the 35 percent rise in the county's population, according to data compiled by the Texas Center for Workforce Studies, a division of the state health department. In Travis County, the number of registered nurses rose 29 percent during the same time.

Counties sidestep shortage

The rising number of nurses in Travis and Williamson counties has meant the statewide nursing shortage has not been as sharply felt in Greater Austin. That is because of a number of factors, said Terry Jones, president of the Central Texas chapter of the Texas Organization of Nursing Executives and a professor at The University of Texas.

"In general, Central Texas has not been affected by the nursing shortage to the same extent that some other counties and regions have," Jones said.

While Texas may need more nurses per capita, the distribution of registered nurses in the state is not uniform, she said. Some counties have enough while others are lacking. Travis and Williamson counties fall into the first category.

The high density of local nursing schools has led to a large number of graduates. Austin Community College, Concordia University Texas, Texas State University's Round Rock campus and The University of Texas all graduate large numbers of nursing students, and the total number of enrollees is on the rise.

Enrollment in higher education nursing programs in Travis County rose 14 percent between 2007 and 2013, and the number of graduates from such programs rose by 72 percent during the same period, according to survey data from the Texas Center for Nursing Workforce Studies.

Corby Jastrow, chairman of the Austin Community College Foundation, which administers nursing scholarships, said an added bonus of helping ACC students is that they tend to stay in the area, which should continue to keep many nurses in Greater Austin. The majority of ACC nursing graduates "live, work, and play and settle here," Jastrow said.

Many nursing graduates stay in the area for the same reasons that other employees do, Jones said. Austin's economic prosperity and culture can discourage young, recent grads and experienced nurses from moving to rural Texas where the need is higher.

"With nursing being a predominantly female profession, you have to look at not just the nursing jobs but who the nurses are likely to be married to," Jones said. "The nurses can find jobs in this area, but their partners can also find jobs in this area as well. You have to look at it from a family perspective."

In addition, the economic downturn that began in 2008 pushed many part-time or retired nurses with more experience back into the full-time workforce, Jones said. Those seasoned nurses and fresh recruits have led to an above-average concentration of practicing nurses in the area.

Future shortages still a concern

Travis and Williamson counties' unique appeal should not suggest, however, that the region is immune to future nursing shortages. Despite the positive trends, several factors could greatly increase demand for nurses, said Cindy Zolnierek, a registered nurse and executive director of the Texas Nurses Association.

Zolnierek said a large number of nurses delayed their retirements during the recession and likely will stop working soon. Those who re-entered the job market during the recession are also likely to exit again as the economy recovers. The Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, is also expected to increase the number of patients in Central Texas.

"When you don't have a nurse, or the right number of nurses, patient outcomes suffer," Zolnierek said.

In addition, a significant portion of Central Texans will soon become seniors, said Patricia Recek, ACC interim executive dean for health sciences. Those older people will have more chronic ailments that will require more care. Central Texas' skyrocketing population will also demand more nurses.

"Not only do we have an aging population, we have a lot of people moving in. We have more complex kinds of health situations that are [also] going to require nurses," Recek said. "We have an aging nursing population that's going to retire."

The stakes for Travis and Williamson counties go beyond access to nursing care. The area's economic boom relies on healthy employees, making access to care and adequate nurse staffing matters of dollars and cents for employers.

"Business is concerned because as they try to recruit for their workforce, [potential employees] are interested in health care, health care costs, health care access and all of that," Zolnierek said. "If there is an inadequate health care system, it is going to cost business and industry more in health insurance dollars."

Keeping up recruitment

Jones said the best way to prevent the region's nursing surplus from turning into a shortage is to keep incentivizing students to enter the field. Even though the local market is healthy, the field still needs fresh nursing recruits, Jones said.

"Unless we have new people coming in, we're going to experience a shortage [of nurses] again," Jones said. "It's very important that we attract the best and brightest people to nursing. It's very important that we send the message that, 'yes, we need you.'"