The Lake Travis area will continue to see growth in its commercial and residential sectors in the coming year, according to Lakeway City Manager Steve Jones, Bee Cave Councilwoman Kara King and Realtor Doug Land. The speakers joined Lake Travis ISD superintendent Brad Lancaster and Travis County Commissioner Gerald Daugherty as presenters at the Jan. 21 Lake Travis Chamber of Commerce annual economic forecast luncheon.

Lakeway

New residential and commercial permits in Lakeway are up from 2013 numbers but have not yet reached the pre-recession levels of 2007, Jones said. The trend is expected to continue as more people move to the suburbs, he said. The area had a shortage of residential land in early-2014 but by the end of the year developers had lots available, he said.

"If it weren't for the lack of supply of lots [in 2014], we would have been on target to exceed [pre-recession numbers]," Jones said.

However, two issues continue to plague the area—water and traffic, Jones said.

The combined Highland Lakes storage on the date of the meeting was 34 percent of capacity, or 689,396 acre-feet—not far from the worst drought on record levels, he said. Some experts say the areas water supply has between two to six years left if lake levels do not increase, he said.Officials say Lake Travis economy expected to keep growing in 2015

Jones also said transportation planners have a general attitude that the cost to add more roads is not affordable, public transportation is the only viable solution in the area and the suburban lifestyle is not sustainable.

Citing former Austin Mayor Bruce Todd, Jones said the city will have a cost-benefit analysis [of development and congestion] when the first big employer doesn't come to Austin because of the traffic.

Bee Cave

King said several large nonresidential developments are slated for Bee Cave, including The Backyard project that will offer a full cultural experience to residents and visitors with its production studios, music venues, and walking trails.

She said The Terrace project—to be developed in conjunction with The Backyard—will add commercial sites but is also planned to include condominiums.

Commercial projects, including Gateway to Falconhead, the Park at Bee Cave and athletic facility Hill Country Indoor, will be underway in 2015 in Bee Cave, King said.

"The challenge is balancing growth with what our residents want," King said, referring to a 2014 survey that reflected residents were seeking residential growth of lower density and more trails, connectivity and parks facilities.

Bee Cave has 1,023 single-family homes, 990 apartment or condominium homes, and 210 rooms dedicated to senior living, she said.

"Most of the apartments built in Bee Cave were as a result of settlements drawn up before the city was in place," King said.

Lake Travis ISD

Lancaster said the district grew 67 percent during the past decade, adding 3,565 students—one of the highest growth rates of any Texas school district.

"Our demographer predicts that over the next 10 years Lake Travis ISD will add 5,676 students, or 64 percent [to its student body]," he said.

Lancaster said the district's legislative priorities for the 84th session include supporting public school funding, adequately funding teaching materials, expanding pre-kindergarten programming and flexibility for school start dates.

Home sales

About $9.5 billion worth of Austin real estate changed hands in 2014, resulting in a local economic impact of $700 million, said Land, a broker with Kuper Sotheby's International.

"That's a major driver of our economy," he said.

However, the trend may slow in the coming year, Land said. Real estate price gains were in the double-digit percentage range from 2012 to 2013, a greater gain than the increase from 2013 to 2014, he said.

The average sale price for a Lake Travis home today is approximately $500,000, Land said, and home prices may continue to rise about 2 percent to 4 percent.

About 90 percent of the established rental units in the area are occupied, and about 70 percent of the units in the newer rental developments are filled, with two apartment developments opening in the area during the past six months, Land said. At least 2,000 apartment units will be complete in LTISD by 2016, he said.

Land said the high average price for local apartment rentals—starting at $850 per month—and their cluster around the Falconhead neighborhood on RR 620 adds to the areas traffic and affordability issues.

Travis County

Daugherty addressed traffic and water in the region, citing some hope for congestion to improve.

In the past 1 1/2 years, the RR 620 corridor was added to the Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organizations long-range plans, and the Texas Department of Transportation committed $1 million to perform a traffic study of the corridor, he said.

With the Highland Lakes low levels and the Gulf Coast rice farmers strong state lobby, Daugherty said he commended the Lower Colorado River Authority for withstanding pressure to make conditions easier to release water downstream at the expense of area residents. He also credited the Central Texas Water Coalition for bringing awareness to the community and LCRA about the need to maintain the lake levels for western Travis County.