Buda is growing rapidly—so rapidly that one scenario projects the population will balloon by 700 percent between 2014 and 2040, according to a city of Buda presentation delivered at a special City Council meeting May 7.
Having grown 39 percent since 2010, Buda is the fastest-growing Texas city with a population greater than 10,000, the presentation stated.
The potential for annexation of the Sunfield, Stonefield and Meadows at Buda neighborhoods could signal further growth. Sunfield is under the jurisdiction of a municipal utility district, and Meadows at Buda and Stonefield are both within the South Buda Water Control and Improvement District. Both the MUD and the WCID issue debt to pay for utility infrastructure. By 2036 the debt in each jurisdiction is expected to be paid off, making them more attractive annexation targets, according to city officials.
If the city annexes the neighborhoods that year, its population is being predicted to grow to as many as 80,000 residents by 2040, according to staff-modified projections based on previous Texas State Data Center forecasts. The city's population hovers around 11,000 currently.
The lowest projection, which uses a different methodology and excludes the possible annexation of the three neighborhoods, places Buda's population in 2040 at 39,000.
"2040 is 25 years away, resulting in significant variability between projection methodologies," City Planner Chance Sparks said. "The further out you go, the more impact unanticipated variables can have on outcomes. Shorter-term projections are tremendously useful and also more accurate."
Buda's population is predicted to be between 16,000 and 26,000 in 2020, according to the city's May presentation.
The projections consider population exclusively and not necessarily future demand on city-owned utilities such as wastewater treatment plants, Sparks said.
Mayor Todd Ruge said that while 80,000 people in 2040 is a new projection, the city had been preparing for a range of scenarios.
"[Population growth] is something we are going to have to deal with," Ruge said. "We have planned accordingly with master plans. The key is to follow through [by implementing the master plans]."
Despite the estimated growth, Buda has little room to expand geographically, which is why its planning documents have thoroughly explored high-density development, the mayor said.
Once the city is fully developed, it will likely be a seamless transition from Austin to Buda, Ruge said.
"It'll be kind of like when you go through Round Rock or Pflugerville, and it's just one big city," he said.
City Finance Director Sidonna Foust said at a May 7 budget meeting that Buda is projected to have a budget surplus of $7 million at the end of the current fiscal year. That is in addition to the millions the city has in its reserves.
Ruge said because of the prudent financial planning of past councils, the city has built up savings "for a rainy day." With cash to spare, city leadership is ready to invest in projects that will increase the quality of life while also meeting the demands of new residents in Buda, the mayor said.
Among the top priorities identified by the public, staff and the council are water, wastewater and transportation issues.
"[Previous councils] had the foresight to think about the future and know how precious this money is and not spend it on projects that weren't needed at the time," Ruge said. "It's really put our current council in the position where we can pull the trigger on a lot of these projects that are needed."
