“We’re holding steady. We’ve seen a lot of movement day to day, between about 10 [hospital] admissions and 25 or so admissions. But what that’s resulting in is a relative flattening of the curve in terms of admissions to the hospital," Escott said. “This is a great response from the community to the concern we expressed a couple of weeks ago regarding a substantial increase in cases and admissions. Our projections now are flat."
As of Nov. 2, data from the UT's COVID-19 Modeling Consortium shows a 45% chance of worsening coronavirus transmission in the coming weeks—down from the 92% chance projected Oct. 27. Escott emphasized during his briefing, however, that these projections are dependent on public behavior. Preventive measures like masking and social distancing can keep infection rates flat and even move them toward Stage 2 risk, whereas a lapse in these measures could cause COVID-19 to "come back with a vengeance."
"It is very difficult to predict models for human behavior," he said. "The lesson learned is that when things start to look better, we want to celebrate.”
If the outlook remains favorable in the coming days and weeks, Escott said that could result in the reopening of bars. On Oct. 27, Travis County Judge Sam Biscoe postponed the decision to reopen bars for the second time since Gov. Greg Abbott gave county officials the green light to allow bars to open again beginning Oct. 14. Biscoe and Escott are set to reconsider this decision next week.
"I certainly feel for the bar industry. I have friends who are affiliated with that industry, and they're hurting right now," Escott said. "If we do make the decision to let bars reopen, the bars have to do a fantastic job of modifying their normal operations to keep it safe because we don't want reopenings to be short-lived."
