Coronavirus transmission rates in the Travis County area are holding steady in the Stage 3 risk zone, Dr. Mark Escott, Austin-Travis County health authority, told the Travis County Commissioners Court at a Nov. 2 meeting. This latest briefing from Escott cited an improved outlook from the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium, which had warned about a potential return to Stage 4 risk just one week prior.
“We’re holding steady. We’ve seen a lot of movement day to day, between about 10 [hospital] admissions and 25 or so admissions. But what that’s resulting in is a relative flattening of the curve in terms of admissions to the hospital," Escott said. “This is a great response from the community to the concern we expressed a couple of weeks ago regarding a substantial increase in cases and admissions. Our projections now are flat."
As of Nov. 2, data from the UT's COVID-19 Modeling Consortium shows a 45% chance of worsening coronavirus transmission in the coming weeks—down from the 92% chance projected Oct. 27. Escott emphasized during his briefing, however, that these projections are dependent on public behavior. Preventive measures like masking and social distancing can keep infection rates flat and even move them toward Stage 2 risk, whereas a lapse in these measures could cause COVID-19 to "come back with a vengeance."
"It is very difficult to predict models for human behavior," he said. "The lesson learned is that when things start to look better, we want to celebrate.”
