Student population to drop in 10 years

For 2013, AISD selected a new demographer, Davis Demographics & Planning Inc., to complete the report. Lorne Woods, the primary author of the demographic report, said tracking future residential development was an important part of the report.

The most notable student population increase is expected to take place in 2014, according to the report.

In 2015 the district could see a decrease of 239 students in kindergarten through fifth grade, and by fall 2016, the student population of that group could decrease by 306, the report states. That trend is expected to continue until at least 2018.

The projected declines can be attributed to smaller incoming kindergarten classes and other small classes matriculating through the years, Woods said.

"You guys are doing a fantastic job overall of retaining high school students," Woods told the board, noting retention rates throughout the nation are lower than AISD's rates.

There are new and planned residential developments in the district of approximately 7,318 units, but student growth from such projects is expected to be limited because of high projected housing costs. Prices have continued to escalate, city of Austin Demographer Ryan Robinson said.

"There's not a single part of your district that's not experiencing some type of intense [housing] pricing pressure, whether it be through redevelopment, whether it be through these existing maturing neighborhoods. We're not going to see much refill of maturing neighborhoods because maturing neighborhoods are so much more expensive than they have been in the past," Robinson told the board.

Robinson noted housing is scarce in Austin's core, and one issue the city's land development code rewrite effort, CodeNext, might address is adding more options such as small multifamily structures including sixplexes and eightplexes.

"The city is very concerned about it," Robinson said. "We along with the district would hate to see a central city that's devoid of families with children. I don't think that that's going to happen, but I I think the way we're hurtling now in this very expensive market with very few housing options, young families just don't have that much to choose from."

Beth Wilson, AISD assistant director for planning services, said elementary schools will continue to see some overcrowding in terms of student population in the west and southeast parts of Austin during the next five years. In the south central area, there may be some leveling off, she said.

"We'll have all our schools in Southwest [Austin] within [our] target range for the first time in a very long time," she said, explaining those neighborhoods are maturing.

By the 2018–19 school year, the district estimates two elementary schools including Cook Elementary School will be above 150 percent enrollment capacity, but Cook will drop from that category when the new North Central Elementary School No. 2 opens, Wilson said.

Trustees pointed to Burnet and Murchison middle schools and Doss and Hill elementary schools as schools that need relief from overcrowding. Carstarphen said efforts that would have helped such schools did not pass in two of the propositions in the district's 2013 bond election.

"Without that money, I will go ahead and say, this is about changing boundaries," Carstarphen said. "This is about doing what will arguably be potentially unpopular concepts for our school communities. And so this is where we are. We said that when we were preparing for the bond, we certainly said it when two of the propositions didn't pass, and I'll say it again. To deal with Burnet, Doss, Murchison [and] Hill, we will need the patience of our community to allow us to really try to work through some creative scenarios without everyone getting upset before we can get started."