After an "anomaly" resulted in Hutto ISD's enrollment being significantly lower than projected for the start of the 2026-27 school year, demographic firm Zonda Education is now predicting slowed growth in the district.
The overview
Paul Cash, a consultant for Zonda Education, said HISD only grew by 80 students for the 2026-27 school year that started in August.
In April, Cash's spring enrollment report showed the district was anticipated to grow by 382 students for this school year. He said the primary driver of this lowered enrollment is a recent cooling in the housing market, as young families with school-aged children cannot afford to live in the area.
"The reason kindergarten numbers are down is it's harder for families that have kindergarteners to buy a house," Cash said.
The new projections also show a change in the 10-year enrollment outlook. The projection presented in April showed the district could exceed an enrollment of 15,000 students by the 2035-36 school year. Now, that projection is down to 12,750.
Cash said this is a statewide trend, reiterating that in the 2025-26 school year, total public school enrollment decreased for the first time in its history. As previously reported by Community Impact, the state enrolled 76,000 fewer students that year. This trend is expected to continue.
Diving in deeper
Cash said housing starts and closings remaining below 2025 levels year-over-year through June. While interest rates have gone up, prices have not yet come down, he said.
"Not as many homes are being sold ... and student yields don't seem to be as high as they were in the past," Cash said.
What's next?
Cash said enrollment projections for the district could change quickly if interest rates go down or if sellers and builders lower home prices.
