That represents an increase up to either 78,314, 79,131 or 80,183 students from an October 2021 enrollment of 77,651 students, according to projections provided by demographic firm Population and Survey Analysts, which delivered its spring 2022 demographic report to the district’s board of trustees during its Feb. 14 meeting.
The three main factors influencing that projected enrollment are the lingering effects on the COVID-19 pandemic, the expansion of charter schools within the district, and new developments in north-central FBISD, PASA outlined in its report.
According to the firm, between 2,000-2,500 FBISD students could remain at home or in alternative virtual schooling because of the pandemic.
“The pandemic affected enrollment,” said Justin Silhavy, the firm’s demographer, who is responsible for developing housing projections and forecasting population growth. “This is year two that we’re talking about it. And you’re not the only ones.”
Besides FBISD, other school districts with enrollment tracked by PASA, including Leander, Klein, Lake Travis, Frisco, and CyFair ISDs, did not meet projected enrollment for the 2021-22 school year, according to the report.
“Everyone has missed the mark, especially districts that don’t have as much new housing,” Silhavy said. “I know you still have a lot of new housing, but the truth is your existing housing stock far outweighs the number of new homes.”
Still, enrollment has increased dramatically in FBISD compared to many of the district’s 61 peers in the Houston metro area over the past few years. Between fall 2015 to fall 2020, FBISD reported 3,620 new students. That is the eighth-highest increase out of those 61 districts, according to the report.
However, elementary-aged students up to fifth graders in FBISD have been the most affected by the pandemic, according to the report. In 2020-21, enrollment for that group dropped by 1,500 students. That number feeds into the 2,000-2,500 figure.
“Where they are, whether or not they’re returning, it’s a great question,” Silhavy said. “We don’t know yet.”
Charter Schools
Between 2015 and 2020, charter school enrollment of FBISD residents increased by 71%, an increase of 2,094 students, according to PASA’s report.
In the 2021-22 school year, out of a total of 88,512 resident students living in FBISD’s boundaries, 4,978 of those are attending charter schools located within those boundaries. That is higher than the number of students attending private schools, at 4,882.
“For the first time ever, I believe, the charter school estimate is now above that number,” Silhavy said.
Looking forward through fall 2026, an additional 1,670 students from FBISD are projected to enroll in charter schools.
