What’s happening?
As of late March, AISD is ranked No. 9 in new home rankings in the Greater Houston area with over 1,580 annual starts, according to Zonda Demographics.
The district is increasing year over year for annual starts, dating back to 2020 with over 1,800 annual starts and over 2,400 annual starts in 2021, according to Zonda.
As of the first quarter of 2024, there have been more than 380 annual starts, which is an increase of about 100 new annual starts compared to the first quarter of 2023, which had over 280 annual starts, according to Zonda.
Rory Gesch, the deputy superintendent of operations for AISD, looks over school boundaries, housing and growth within the district. He said a larger amount of growth began in 2016, which is when Shadow Creek High School, the third high school in the district, opened.
He said before COVID-19, AISD was projecting from 1,100-1,200 new students a year, but the pandemic has led the district to have about 600-800 new students a year. Although the district has decreased in its projected growth, the district still had a need for a fourth high school. As a result, Iowa Colony High School opened in 2022.
“Alvin [ISD] ... has been on a growth trend for several years,” Gesch said. “Post-COVID[-19], the growth hasn’t been as rapid, ... but that’s a trend across the state. I think school choice becomes more of a hot topic in Texas, and we’ve seen a lot with the virtual environment that happened during COVID[-19], ... but we continue to grow in Alvin.”
Diving in deeper
AISD has also seen growth in specific areas of the district, such as Meridiana and Pomona, according to Zonda.
Meridiana is located in Iowa Colony and has over 2,100 homes occupied with over 6,000 total lots in the community, according to Zonda. Students who reside in Meridiana have the option to attend Meridiana Elementary, Barbara Bennett Elementary, Jackie Doucet Caffey Junior High and Iowa Colony High School, according to the community’s website.
Pomona is located in Manvel and has over 1,400 homes occupied with over 2,200 total lots in the community, according to Zonda. Students who reside in Pomona have the option to attend Pomona Elementary, Rodeo Palms Junior High and Manvel High School, according to the community’s website.
Meridiana has over 1,120 AISD students living in the area, and Pomona has over 600 students living in the area. The two areas have some of the highest activities for annual starts compared to all AISD elementary school zones, according to Zonda.
The district uses student yields, which is the amount of students per home, for projected enrollment. Meridiana has a student yield of 0.53, which means for every 100 homes, about 50 students yield from those homes, said Rocky Gardiner, the director and school district consultant for Zonda, at the April 9 AISD board of trustees meeting.
“When Meridiana gets built out, we’re going to be looking at over 3,000 students out there,” Gardiner said at the meeting. “As new homes get built out in that area, they’re going to yield pretty similarly.”
The future
AISD is ranked No. 5 for future lots compared to other districts in the Greater Houston area with over 18,300 future lots, according to Zonda.
According to district data, the highest amount of future lots will be in the following elementary zones in AISD:
- Nichols Mock Elementary: 4,588 future lots
- Barbara Bennett Elementary: 4,218 future lots
- Bob and Betty Nelson Elementary: 3,222 future lots
- Bel Nafegar Sanchez Elementary: 1,903 future lots
- E.C. Mason Elementary: 1,432 future lots
To mitigate the growth, AISD is asking voters for a $380.1 million bond in November.
The bond would include the following:
- Two new elementary schools, projected to open in 2025 and 2027, and a replacement elementary school for Disney Elementary and Stevenson Primary in 2026
- One new junior high campus, which could open in 2027
- Renovations and additions to Manvel High School and Alvin High School
- A land and security package
If the bond doesn’t pass, district officials said there are still solutions the district could implement, such as busing students to other schools if they reach capacity or purchasing portables.
“When I was an assistant principal at Passmore [Elementary], there were no more seats, and we had to bus kids out to Don Jeter [Elementary], so those are the things you have to look at ‘what are the options if a bond doesn’t pass,’” AISD Superintendent Carol Nelson said at the April 9 board meeting. “There’s all kinds of different options depending on what direction the community goes, the taxpayers go, but we continually base our decisions on the data that we receive.”
