A new bond election could be in New Caney ISD’s near future, district leaders said, due to projections that rising student enrollment over the next decade will force 17 out of 22 campuses to exceed their capacities.

The overview

Enrollment growth is not new for NCISD. The district was one of five public school districts in the Greater Houston area to see more than 15% enrollment growth—19.3%— from 2020-25, according to Texas Education Agency data. However, a mid-level growth projection expects the district to see enrollment rise 43.3% over the next decade, according to a report presented March 17 from demographics firm Population and Survey Analysts, or PASA.

“In my 10 years in the district, it has always been a big topic of how to prepare for [growth] and how to proactively deal with it and keep up with it,” NCISD Superintendent Matt Calvert said.

Four new schools were funded under the district’s $695 million bond, approved by voters in May 2023, Calvert said, but NCISD’s projected enrollment boom could require four more.


The enrollment growth will largely be spurred by more housing options coming to the area, according to PASA’s report. Nearly 18,500 new residential units are projected to be built within NCISD’s boundaries by 2034.

The full story

For the 2024-25 school year, NCISD enrolled 19,420 students, according to TEA data. By 2034-35, PASA officials predict enrollment to reach between 23,900 and 30,600 students, representing 23%-58% growth.
With average daily attendance being used to calculate state funding for school districts, more students means more money for the district, Calvert said. However, it also means more staff will need to be hired.

“There’s definitely a proportional relationship there. ... It’s nice to get the additional revenue, [but] at the same time, there’s going to be some additional expenses coming in,” Calvert said.


Multiple projects under NCISD’s May 2023 bond were added to address student growth. Two new elementary schools, two new middle schools and a high school expansion funded by the bond are slated to add almost 5,000 seats to total student capacity across the district, said Scott Powers, NCISD’s executive director of public relations.

Meanwhile, New Caney and Porter elementary schools are projected to be the first schools to exceed 120% of their capacities is predicted to be by the 2027-28 school year, according to PASA’s report. However, Calvert noted the report does not account for some of the schools planned under the 2023 bond.
What's changing?

The top factors spurring student enrollment growth for NCISD include new housing options coming to the area and a continually rising local birth rate, according to PASA’s report.

“Plans for new housing construction fluctuate and impact the specific years when those new students will arrive, but where they arrive has been projected in the past three PASA studies,” PASA President Stacey Tepera said via email Aug. 9.


The construction of new housing in the New Caney area is expected to add at least 500-800 students per year over the next decade, according to PASA’s report. Single-family housing makes up a majority, 82.8%, of the students expected to be added to NCISD.
Four major single-family neighborhoods that are already being built within NCISD’s boundaries—The Highlands, Tavola West, Maple Heights and Porters Mill South—are projected to add 3,500 homes total by the 2028-29 school year, according to the report.
By the 2034-35 school year, 4,200 are expected to be added to NCISD’s boundaries, per the report. This growth could come from further construction in The Highlands as well as undeveloped land, including a 1,600-acre tract owned by Guniganti Family Property Holdings in the northwest portion of the district and several tracts of land owned by Aurous Development located south of Gene Campbell Boulevard in Porter.

The other side

TEA data shows NCISD lost 677 students for net transfers—transfers in minus transfers out—to charter schools, virtual schools and other public school districts from 2019-24. For the 2024-25 school year, NCISD lost 368 students through net transfers out, representing a 247% spike in students lost compared to five school years ago.
Texas lawmakers voted in April to create a $1 billion education savings account program that would give families about $10,000 per year to use for private school tuition. Families who homeschool their children would receive up to $2,000 annually.

Calvert said it is too early to tell how the voucher program will impact NCISD’s enrollment.


“There are many changes happening currently in Texas public education that are impacting enrollment trends in nondemographic ways. ... However, NCISD has not been dramatically impacted by these other factors enough to counter the enrollment growth,” Tepera said.

Looking ahead

Since NCISD leaders were presented PASA’s latest report in March, they have been reviewing the data and have begun laying the groundwork for the district’s next bond program, Calvert said, but it’s unknown when the bond will be called.

Over the next decade, NCISD could need:
  • 3 new elementary schools
  • 1 new high school