Rocky Gardiner with Zonda Demographics presented the report to MISD trustees during their Nov. 18 meeting. The data for 2025 is through the first three quarters of this year.
Gardiner said he believes school choice, for the most part, is contributing to the enrollment decline.
“We’ve seen this not just in Montgomery [ISD], we’ve seen this [in] a lot of the communities right around you, school districts that we work with,” Gardiner said. “We think that the [Texas Education Agency] will likely show an enrollment decline statewide for the first time since COVID, and really for the first time in probably 20, 25 years.”
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MISD enrollment is still projected to grow. According to the report, the district will grow by 4.3% between 2026-27 and 2035-36, reaching 12,268 students.
“This demographic report reinforces how important it is for us to be proactive in future planning in a fiscally responsible way,” Superintendent Mark Ruffin said via news release. “Gathering accurate data is essential to ensuring we are utilizing our school facilities as efficiently and effectively as possible, while preserving the qualities that make MISD a place where families want to be.”
Gardiner said home starts in the Montgomery ISD area are already ahead of the two previous years.
“We’ve already started more homes in the three quarters than we did in four quarters of ‘23 and ‘24,” Gardiner said.
For multifamily housing, there is one 239-unit multifamily project underway, with five other multifamily projects in the planning stages that comprise over 1,650 future units, according to the report.
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To see the full demographic report from Zonda Demographics, click here.
