UPDATED: UT projections say continued social distancing is working

The report also looked at case projections if contact is reduced by 50%, 75% and 80% and recommended schools remain closed until Aug. 17.

Currently, the epidemic doubling time is 2.8 days, the report said.

“The data further suggest that school closures and social distancing are depressing transmission,” the report said. “Our projections indicate that the Stay Home-Work Safe order could effectively delay or avert a COVID-19 healthcare crisis in the region.”

As of April 7, Travis County had 554 confirmed cases and seven deaths. Williamson County had 87 confirmed cases and four deaths. Hays County had 75 confirmed cases and no deaths.

On March 24, both Travis and Williamson counties issued a “Stay Home Stay Safe” order from March 25 through April 13. Hays County’s order went into effect March 26. Gov. Greg Abbott issued an order April 1 requiring all Texans to stay home except for essential trips out through April 30—which supersedes any local orders.

On April 7, Williamson County announced it will extend its “Stay Home Stay Safe” order through April 30.

Entities are asking residents to reduce their interaction by 90%, only leaving homes for essential trips—such as grocery shopping and trips to the pharmacy—and to complete essential work.

“There is still much we do not understand about the transmission dynamics of this virus, including the extent of asymptomatic infection and transmission,” the report said. “These results do not represent the full range of uncertainty. Rather, they are meant to serve as plausible scenarios for gauging the likely impacts of social distancing measures in the Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Area.”

View the full report here: